Sean Pratt, The Western Producer

Canada and the United States are both looking at sizeable crops, while conditions are also favourable in Russia and Kazakhstan

There is potential for a big increase in green lentil production in 2025-26 after several years of tight supplies, says an analyst.

Canada will lead the way with an estimated 842,000 tonnes of production, Chuck Penner, analyst with LeftField Commodity Research, told delegates attending the Global Pulse Confederation’s Pulses 2025 conference in Singapore.

Competition for sales is expected to heat up as Russia expects a bigger crop following last year’s disappointing harvest
 

Canada will likely be facing more competition in pea export markets this year.

Russia’s production is expected to rebound after a disappointing 2024-25 harvest, said Gaurav Jain, analyst with AgPulse Analytica.

He is forecasting 5.01 million tonnes of production in 2025-26, up from 3.92 million tonnes last year.

Analysts say Agriculture Canada may have to cut its ending canola stocks estimate in half in response to booming exports

It is highly unusual to see a red number in the sea of black on Agriculture Canada’s monthly Grains and Oilseeds Supply and Disposition report.

But it happened in the May report when the department penciled in minus 609,000 tonnes for its canola feed, waste and dockage (FWD) number for the current crop year.

Wheat prices would get a boost if the country’s exports remain as low as much of the trade is beginning to forecast

A big debate is once again brewing about how much wheat the world’s leading exporter will ship out in the upcoming crop year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting Russia will produce 83 million tonnes of the crop and export 45 million tonnes.

SovEcon is forecasting 81 million tonnes of production and 39.7 million tonnes of exports.

Canola oil would be one of the main beneficiaries of proposed changes to the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit making their way through U.S. Congress, says an analyst.

The feedstock is not eligible for the credit under the current rules because of its unfavourable carbon intensity (CI) score.

However, under new rules contained in the budget bill that recently passed through the U.S. House of Representatives, canola’s carbon intensity score drops to 38.5 grams of carbon dioxide per megajoule from 54.9.

SASKATOON — Canada’s two national railways are about to enter a stretch of prolonged labour peace with the major unions representing their workers.

“It’s a period of calm,” said Mark Hemmes, president of Quorum Corp., which is Canada’s grain monitor.

“It’s satisfying to know that at least we’re going to have a couple of years of grace where we don’t have to worry about (work stoppages).”

Production is expected to recover by 70 million tonnes due to favourable conditions, while demand will rise by 45 million tonnes

SASKATOON — The global grain outlook for 2025-26 is incredibly balanced, says an analyst.

The International Grains Council (IGC) is forecasting 2.373 billion tonnes of production and an identical 2.373 billion tonnes of demand.

“We’re looking at quite a finely balanced fundamental picture for grains,” Helen Plant, senior analyst for the United Kingdom’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, said in a recent webinar.

The government isn’t thought to be in a hurry to impose a large duty on yellow peas as it takes steps to reduce food inflation.

India’s pulse trade is pushing for the government to implement a large tariff on imported yellow peas.

Bimal Kothari, chair of the India Pulses and Grains Association, recently told the Hindu Businessline that he wants to see a 50 per cent import duty on the crop to ensure the landed price is equivalent to the government’s minimum support price for desi chickpeas.

Strong nitrogen fertilizer demand is butting up against tight supplies in some regions of the world, says an analyst.

India is the world’s top importer of the product.

Indian urea demand surged to 38.8 million tonnes in 2024-25, an eight per cent increase over the previous year, according to Argus Media.

That was due in part to tight supplies of diammonium phosphate (DAP) fertilizer during the winter (rabi) crop season.

SASKATOON — Canada has far fewer green peas than the government is reporting, says an analyst.

“Purely from a price perspective, markets believe the Canadian harvest was smaller than estimated by Statistics Canada,” Stat Publishing noted in a recent article.

Using crop insurance data, a “strong argument” can be made that growers planted 358,000 acres of green peas last year, well below Statistics Canada’s 463,000-acre estimate.

Stat believes the area has been over-reported since 2021.