Sean Pratt, The Western Producer

Wheat prices would get a boost if the country’s exports remain as low as much of the trade is beginning to forecast

A big debate is once again brewing about how much wheat the world’s leading exporter will ship out in the upcoming crop year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting Russia will produce 83 million tonnes of the crop and export 45 million tonnes.

SovEcon is forecasting 81 million tonnes of production and 39.7 million tonnes of exports.

Canola oil would be one of the main beneficiaries of proposed changes to the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit making their way through U.S. Congress, says an analyst.

The feedstock is not eligible for the credit under the current rules because of its unfavourable carbon intensity (CI) score.

However, under new rules contained in the budget bill that recently passed through the U.S. House of Representatives, canola’s carbon intensity score drops to 38.5 grams of carbon dioxide per megajoule from 54.9.

SASKATOON — Canada’s two national railways are about to enter a stretch of prolonged labour peace with the major unions representing their workers.

“It’s a period of calm,” said Mark Hemmes, president of Quorum Corp., which is Canada’s grain monitor.

“It’s satisfying to know that at least we’re going to have a couple of years of grace where we don’t have to worry about (work stoppages).”

Production is expected to recover by 70 million tonnes due to favourable conditions, while demand will rise by 45 million tonnes

SASKATOON — The global grain outlook for 2025-26 is incredibly balanced, says an analyst.

The International Grains Council (IGC) is forecasting 2.373 billion tonnes of production and an identical 2.373 billion tonnes of demand.

“We’re looking at quite a finely balanced fundamental picture for grains,” Helen Plant, senior analyst for the United Kingdom’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, said in a recent webinar.

The government isn’t thought to be in a hurry to impose a large duty on yellow peas as it takes steps to reduce food inflation.

India’s pulse trade is pushing for the government to implement a large tariff on imported yellow peas.

Bimal Kothari, chair of the India Pulses and Grains Association, recently told the Hindu Businessline that he wants to see a 50 per cent import duty on the crop to ensure the landed price is equivalent to the government’s minimum support price for desi chickpeas.

Strong nitrogen fertilizer demand is butting up against tight supplies in some regions of the world, says an analyst.

India is the world’s top importer of the product.

Indian urea demand surged to 38.8 million tonnes in 2024-25, an eight per cent increase over the previous year, according to Argus Media.

That was due in part to tight supplies of diammonium phosphate (DAP) fertilizer during the winter (rabi) crop season.

SASKATOON — Canada has far fewer green peas than the government is reporting, says an analyst.

“Purely from a price perspective, markets believe the Canadian harvest was smaller than estimated by Statistics Canada,” Stat Publishing noted in a recent article.

Using crop insurance data, a “strong argument” can be made that growers planted 358,000 acres of green peas last year, well below Statistics Canada’s 463,000-acre estimate.

Stat believes the area has been over-reported since 2021.

Statistics Canada is forecasting 232,180 acres, a 20 per cent decrease from last year, but traders question the estimate’s accuracy

Canaryseed brokers and traders think acres this year will be larger than Statistics Canada is indicating.

“Definitely acres are going up, not down,” said David Nobbs, a trader with Bornhorst Seeds.

Statistics Canada is forecasting 232,180 acres of the crop, a 20 per cent decrease from last year.

“I don’t even know why they’re involved in this crop. The numbers that come out are just always wrong,” said Nobbs.