It may not be a traditional Christmastime snow storm, but it does appear parts of Southern Manitoba will see some impacts from a system moving through the Dakotas and Minnesota over the next 24 hours or so.
"This particular low pressure system is coming off the Rockies in the U.S. and pushing northward," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "It's been particularly challenging to forecast due to the ongoing uncertainty regarding the timing of its arrival, and how that will play into its interaction with the warm and somewhat coolers airmasses that will be present in the general region."
Environment Canada has ended the Freezing Rain Warning that was in effect, but in its latest forecast update, noted there is still the risk for it through the late morning hours while temperatures dropped to about -4 Sunday afternoon.
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"We aren't expecting a lot of precipitation from this disturbance, but it's likely we will see a combination of freezing rain and snow between Saturday night and Sunday night," noted Sumner. "As the systems tracks by, and northwesterly winds develop, cooler air will be pulled into the low, and that will transition the precipitation to snowfall, which at this point, is expected to be a few centimeters at most."
The snow will taper off Christmas Eve afternoon, with cloudy conditions for the rest of the day, and gusty northerly winds up to 60 km/h will likely lead to ongoing blowing and drifting snow into the evening hours.
"High pressure builds in Christmas Day Monday, meaning a return to sunshine after a couple of dreary days," he said ."Highs Monday will be around -4 to -6, which is still above average for this time of year considering -10 is where we should be."
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The next possible snowmaker is showing up in the forecast models for sometime between Christmas Day night and Boxing Day.
"This system will also be on the U.S. side of the border, pushing northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota," explained Sumner. "At this point, it appears possible the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba may be impacted by the furthest northern boundary of the low, with some snow a possibility, but it's still too early to say for sure how significant the impacts from this one could be."
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