A major winter storm projected to move through the northern U.S. plains could possibly bring impacts Sunday night through Tuesday morning to parts of Southern Manitoba as it tracks through the Dakotas and Minnesota.
"We've been keeping an eye on this potential system since early this week, because even as of Monday, many of the forecast models were already in agreement regarding the likelihood of a significant snowfall event occurring on the U.S. side of the border, but also tracking close enough to our region to bring a taste of winter, too," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "Over the course of the week, confidence has continued to grow in the likelihood of this system bringing impacts to Southern Manitoba, but over the past 24 to 36 hours, the forecast models have projected the track to be a little further south and east."
And what does that mean for our side of the border families begin the traditional break from school?
"That's the million dollar question right now, as we continue to fine tune the forecasts," he said. "The exact track of the storm is still uncertain, and because of that, so are the projections regarding where may receive the most snow on our side of the border, and just how much that could be. At this point, the general guidance is the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba are likely to see the most accumulating snowfall from this system, with the southwestern corner of the province seeing less. What those totals may end up being are still up in the air, and will be very dependent on how the low pressure system actually moves through the northern U.S."
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For those travelling south this weekend, and early next week, Sumner noted the U.S. National Weather Service has already issued Winter Storm Watches for parts of North Dakota and Minnesota.
"As you go further south, and east through Grand Forks, Fargo and toward Minneapolis, you will be driving right into what's expected to be, at this point, the area of highest impacts," he said.
Sumner noted the uncertainty regarding this storm, which is typical for this magnitude of an event this far out from its expected arrival, has led to disagreement between Canadian forecasts for what's to come. Some models are suggesting it will ultimately track too far south and east to be much of a concern here.
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"But even though that disagreement exists, it very well could change, and I would encourage those especially near the U.S. border in the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba to pay close attention to the forecast," he stressed. "At this point, even with the finer details to be worked out regarding exactly where and how much, I would suggest wrapping our heads around the fact we will see some snowfall accumulation between Sunday night and Tuesday morning."
Environment Canada's forecast for Monday and Tuesday is for snow, with highs between -6 and -8. Gusty northerly winds between 50 and 60 km/h are also expected, meaning blowing snow and reduced visibility would be likely if we do see some sort of snowfall here.