After a somewhat dry start to Spring, that’s about to change this week with a multi-day precipitation event starting Tuesday, and potentially lasting into Friday depending on how things evolve over the coming days. That from CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner, who noted any precipitation we receive will be welcomed by most, with much of Southern Manitoba receiving well below average snowfall this past winter.
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"We have a couple systems we’re watching this week, which combined will bring the province it’s first widespread rainfall of the season," he explained. "A low crossing through the U.S. plains today and tomorrow, and an upper level low coming out of Alberta and crossing the Prairies, are the two separate systems that will be responsible for what’s to come. We could see some precipitation push northward off that U.S. low tonight and into Tuesday, before we see the Canadian low take over early morning Wednesday through the remainder of the week."
Sumner noted rainfall totals for areas south of the Trans Canada are expected to range between 10 and 20mm from Tuesday morning through Wednesday night, and we could also see a brief return of some flakes.
"After Wednesday, cooler air is pulled into the system on the backside of the Canadian low, and that may see us move into a transition to wet snow or flurries," he added. "We’re not expecting accumulating snowfall, especially with how warm the ground is. A lot, if not most, will melt on contact."
He noted, after Wednesday, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty how this low will track, and what that will mean for additional rain or snow for our region.
"With that in mind, we’ll be fine tuning expectations as we move along this week, but it does appear likely, at this point, we'll see some combination of showers, wet snow or flurries Thursday and possibly into Friday."
Breezy conditions will also be part of the mix throughout the week as this all plays out, first from the southeast, and then shifting northerly.
"From a temperature perspective, we’ll see above average temperatures for one more day, with highs landing between 15 and 17 Monday," said Sumner. "Cooler conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, as a northerly flow develops, but still seasonal between 10 and 12. Then, as the cold front from the Canadian low pushes through, we drop into the single digits for Thursday and Friday with +2 to +4 likely, which again will lead to the remaining precipitation with this system potentially transitioning to a snow rain mix for our region."
Southern Manitoba is expected to miss most of the impacts from this potent Spring snowstorm, which is forecast to drop up to 20cms of snow on parts of Central Manitoba and Saskatchewan.