A week of unsettled weather before the arrival of May Long Weekend kicked off Tuesday, as the region looks ahead to not only the unofficial start to Summer, but also several rounds of showers over the course of the next few days.
"A low pressure system moving along the northern U.S. brought shower activity to much of Southern Manitoba Tuesday morning into the mid to late afternoon hours," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "Accumulations weren't too significant in some places, but with more than likely two more rounds of precipitation between now and the end of May Long, the overall accumulation could push into the 15 to 25mm range for most locations."
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The following totals are courtesy PembinaValleyOnline Rainwatchers, Environment Canada and the Manitoba Ag Weather Network and are for Tuesday, May 14th:
Carman - 15.9mm (just over 6/10)
Elm Creek - 14.3mm
Winnipeg (The Forks) - 13.9mm
Jordan - 13.0mm
Morden - 11.3mm
Kane - 11.2mm
Plum Coulee - 10.84mm
Manitou - 10.5mm (4/10)
Morris - 9.9mm
Pilot Mound - 8.9mm
Steinbach - 8.8mm
/Winkler/Rosenfeld - 7.5mm (3/10)
Clearwater - 6.6mm
Dominion City - 5.4mm (2/10)
Altona - 4.5mm
Reinland - 4.4mm
Gretna - 3.4mm
Emerson 1.0mm
25mm = 1 inch
"Another round of showers is in the forecast for Wednesday, as rain pushes northward off a low pressure system moving through the Dakotas and Minnesota," noted Sumner. "Similar totals to Tuesday are likely, again in that 5 to 10mm range across the region, and south of the Trans Canada highway. As that system pulls eastward, showers will taper off Wednesday n ight, and we should get a break in the precipitation Thursday and Friday before the next system arrives."
Partly sunny conditions are expected for tomorrow and Friday, with highs rebounding back to seasonal and slightly above, ranging between 19 and 24 degrees.
"The next chance for showers is Friday as a low pressure system approaching from the west, across the Southern Prairies, could be the trigger for additional precipitation," he said. "Ahead of its arrival, winds will shift southerly, and warm, humid air will be pumped into the region, setting up a favourable environment for thunderstorm development Friday afternoon and early evening, with the slight chance of severe thunderstorm activity."
According to Sumner, showers from that low may linger into Saturday morning as it turns northward due to blocking high pressure over Ontario directing the low that way, rather than letting it take the usual west to east track we see with the vast majority of systems in Canada.
"And with the arrival of May Long Weekend, it's looking like we'll see some sunshine and seasonal temperatures after Saturday," he added. "Highs Saturday will be average to slightly below as that low pushes northward, and as a westerly flow establishes itself over the region, Sunday and Monday should push back into the low 20s. Overall, I'm expecting one of those traditional May Longs where we see at least some rain and a cooler day in the mix, and right now it looks like both will happen at the start, with the majority of the weekend relatively dry."
Average daytime highs for this point in May are 21 degrees, with overnight lows around 6 degrees.