The unsettled pattern this week continued Wednesday with a second round of showers in about as many days.
"Most areas in the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba received two distinct periods of rain," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "The first was late Wednesday morning for an hour or two, with the second starting mid to late evening and continuing into the overnight. Similar to earlier in the week, there were heavier bands within the low impacting the region, and that's why we're seeing such variation in totals."
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The following reports are for May 15th through 5 a.m. Thursday, May 16th and are courtesy PembinaValleyOnline Rainwatchers, Environment Canada and the Manitoba Ag Weather Network:
Morden (south of city) - 15mm (6/10th)
Jordan - 11.0mm (about 4/10th)
Kane - 9.0mm
Carman - 7.5mm (3/10th)
Rosenfeld/Woodmore - 5.0mm (2/10)
Morris - 4.9mm
Manitou - 4.2mm
Gretna - 3.8mm
Dominion City 3.5mm
Winnipeg (The Forks) - 2.9mm
Winkler - 2.8mm
Emerson/Elm Creek - 2.3mm (just under 1/10)
Plum Coulee - 2.29mm
Reinland - 2.2mm
Altona - 1.9mm
Steinbach - 1.1mm
25mm = 1 inch
The fog and drizzle Thursday morning are the lingering affects of yesterday's low, and will taper off this morning as we see a partly sunny day and temperatures rebounding back to seasonal between 20 and 22 degrees.
"Today we will be between two systems, the one departing our region and the next one coming our way out of the Rockies and travelling along the southern Prairies," noted Sumner. "The next low will bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances Friday, particularly in the afternoon and early evening. Ahead of the western low's arrival, a strong southeasterly flow develops, with gusts up to 50 km/h, pumping warm and moist air into Southern Manitoba, setting the stage for those thunderstorms and possibly leading to a slight chance for severe thunderstorm development. This also means we will see an above average day heading into May Long weekend, with highs possibly reaching the upper 20s."
Sumner added the cold front associated with the Friday low would be the trigger for these storms, with that risk and precipitation chances lasting well into the evening.
Looking ahead to the unofficial start to Summer, the weekend continues the unsettled pattern with lingering showers from the Friday low potentially lasting into late Saturday morning and early afternoon as it turns northward, being prevented from heading east due to blocking high pressure. Saturday daytime highs will be much cooler than Friday, and several degrees below average, topping out between 14 and 16.
"We're expecting a pleasant Sunday, with partly sunny conditions and seasonal temperatures between 19 and 21, but another low pressure system crossing the northern U.S. is expected to arrive by Sunday night bringing another round of showers to Southern Manitoba," said Sumner. "As that low tracks through the Dakotas, and then northeastward through our region and into central Manitoba, showers could linger into Victoria Day Monday, but temperatures are expected to remain seasonal."
Averages for mid-May are 21 degrees for daytime highs and 7 degrees for overnight lows.
"Considering what we traditionally see, weather-wise, over May Long weekend, what we're expecting this year is similar to that," said Sumner. "It always seems we get at least one cool day, and at least a round or two of showers. But, look at the bright side, at least this May Long we're not expecting snow!"