After a wet and windy start to May Long Weekend last week, it appears this coming weekend will have a similar theme, albeit with even more precipitation in the forecast. Environment Canada has issued Rainfall Warnings for much of Southern Manitoba from as far west as the Killarney area through Manitou, Pilot Mound, Morden, Carman, Winkler, Altona, Emerson, Morris and all of Southeastern Manitoba.
Between 50 and 60mm is being forecast, at this point.
"Much of Southern Manitoba is in for a substantial amount of precipitation between Thursday night and Saturday morning," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "A strong upper level low pressure system moving northward out of the Dakotas will begin impacting the area in the early morning hours of Friday. It is tapping into moisture laden air from the Gulf of Mexico, and that is setting the stage for potentially the most significant rainfall event of the Spring, so far."
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"The bulk of the rain will fall during the day Friday, with rainfall rates diminishing once we get into the evening hours," he added. "The precipitation is expected to taper off by late Saturday morning, at the latest, as the system moves into Central Manitoba."
According to Sumner, gusty northerly winds will also be part of the weather mix during the rain event, as the pressure gradient around the low encourages those breezy conditions.
"That northerly flow will also usher in cooler conditions to the region, with highs Friday struggling to reach to 11 to 13 range which is almost ten degrees below average for this point in May," he said. "That cooler airmass will also lead to a risk of frost Friday night, as overnight lows sink to +2 to +4, so have your blankets ready to cover up your gardens."
Conditions will improve throughout Saturday, with some sunshine expected to peek through the cloud cover, as highs begin rebounding back to seasonal with the md teens expected followed by even warmer highs on Sunday around 20 to 22.
"This will be a soaking rain event, one that will certainly put a stop to remaining Spring seeding operations for a period of time," noted Sumner. "The long range forecast models are suggesting we should see a return to warmer and drier conditions for the final week of May, so hopefully the delay won't be too long as farmers try to get this year's crop in."