As a cold front slowly worked eastward across Southern Manitoba Thursday, another round of shower activity added to the already considerable precipitation totals some regions have received over the course of May.
"This particular front was tracking in an east-northeast fashion, and took quite a while to work its way across the area," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "Within the area of precipitation associated with this disturbance, you can see where there were embedded thunderstorms. For example, the Gretna, Altona and Rosenfeld area had a brief downpour which equated to 10 to 12mm of rain in a pretty short period of time. Elsewhere, say the Morden and Winkler area, the rain wasn't as developed within that north-south line of precipitation, and that's why those communities saw barely trace amounts."
The following totals are for Thursday, May 30th and are courtesy PembinaValleyOnline Rainwatchers, Environment Canada and the Manitoba Ag Weather Network:
Rosenfeld - 12.5mm (1/2 inch)
Gretna - 11.9mm
Altona - 11.7mm
Woodmore - 10mm
Brunkild - 9.4mm (almost 4/10)
Morris - 8.6mm
Steinbach - 7.0mm (almost 3/10)
Emerson - 4.8mm
Dominion City - 4.2mm
Reinland/Kane - 4.0mm
Winker (south of city) - 0.6mm
Morden/Pilot Mound - 0.3mm
25mm = 1 inch
According to Sumner, looking ahead to the weekend and beyond, the active pattern will continue with several chance of showers and rain in the coming days.
"A low pressure system centred over Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will be responsible for the strong, westerly to southwesterly winds Friday with gusts up to 60 km/h possible," he said. "We're expecting generally sunny conditions during the day, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday night, as a weak disturbance comes off that low. Saturday is looking mainly sunny by the afternoon, and still breezy from the west, but most importantly dry throughout the day. Highs Friday and Saturday should be in the 22 to 24 range."
Sunday is the next significant chance of rainfall and thunderstorm activity, as a low pushing through the Dakotas could trigger another round of precipitation.
"Ahead of the cold front's arrival, which will be the trigger for the possible activity, warm, humid air will be pumped into the region by a strong southerly flow, setting the stage for an unstable environment," said Sumner. "Sunday morning is looking relatively dry, but by early afternoon the rainfall chances pick-up, with the most likely timeframe we could see scattered precipitation and thunderstorms begin is early to mid-afternoon. That shower activity will last into Sunday evening before tapering off."
Sumner noted there is some disagreement on just how warm it may get Sunday, with it depending on how much daytime heating there is before the showers begin. Generally speaking, it appears a range between 23 and 27 is possible, with the high end only likely if there is ample sunshine through the morning hours into the early afternoon.
" As we get into the first week of June, Monday should be a pleasant day with mainly sunny conditions and seasonal daytime highs," he noted. "Tuesday is looking like the next accumulating rainfall event, with a low coming out of the Canadian Rockies, and working eastward, potentially bringing another round of active and wet weather. After that, the forecast models are split on whether we'll see a seasonal and somewhat sunny back half of the week, or if the wet pattern will continue."
Average daytime highs for this time of year are 22 degrees, with overnight lows around 9 degrees.