All of Alberta's COVID-19 spokespeople appeared back in public today (September 3) to say that temporary measures would be put into place to reduce transmission and preventing the health care system from being overwhelmed because of increasing COVID-19 transmission and rising hospital admissions, overwhelmingly among unvaccinated Albertans.
Premier Jason Kenney, Health Minister Tyler Shandro and Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Deena Hinshaw all made their first appearance in several weeks.
As a way to entice the unvaccinated to get immunized, Kenney announced a new incentive program in the province that offers a $100 gift card to Albertans 18 and older who receive a first or second dose of the vaccine between now and October 14th. He hopes the incentive will encourage unvaccinated Albertans to get protected as soon as possible.
Health Minister Shandro said that masks would once again be mandatory for all indoor public spaces and workplaces beginning on September 4th at 8:00 am. However, schools are not required to implement masking. School boards will continue to set COVID-19 management policies as they deem appropriate.
Other temporary measures being implemented include:
- As of September 4th at 8:00 am, restaurants, cafés, bars, pubs, nightclubs and other licensed establishments will be required to end alcohol service at 10 p.m.
- In addition, Albertans are encouraged to limit in-person contacts. To support this, the province strongly recommends that unvaccinated Albertans limit their indoor social gatherings to close contacts of only two cohort families up to a maximum of 10 people.
- It is also recommended that employers pause their plans to have staff return to work and instead continue with work-from-home measures. If employees are working on location, employees must mask for all indoor settings, except in work stations or where two-metre physical distancing or adequate physical barriers are in place
Dr. Hinshaw then provided updated modelling information that painted a bleak picture.
Based on information available in mid-August, an updated projection of estimated COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations to the end of September was developed. Current actual data is trending toward the high end of the projections, therefore numbers may exceed the projections. Peaks in the model are only estimates, and actual peaks may be higher and later than anticipated if current growth trends continue.
This provincial modelling shows intensive care unit patients could possibly peak at around 180 in the medium scenario, although if accelerating trends continue, numbers could reach or exceed the currently projected high scenario at 290.
Other hospitalizations (non-ICU) are currently trending toward the high scenario, with a potential peak of 700 in the next several weeks. If the high scenario peaks are reached, this would mean a greater combined impact on the acute care system than in all previous waves, and if changes in transmission cause greater spread, these numbers could be exceeded.
Modelling is for the entire province. Some regions will experience different case and hospitalization statistics per capita; this will particularly be expected in those areas with lower rates of vaccinations.
Modelling is a dynamic process where there are constant comparisons against observations versus projections. When these comparisons deviate, the model assumptions are re-evaluated, which may change with new information such as outbreak events.
This modelling is now available online.
A separate evidence summary has also been posted, including key assumptions and considerations, hospital impact modelling that was developed in June to inform changes announced in late July, and a reference list for further reading.