In typical Summer fashion, the Pembina Valley region saw scattered late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms Saturday. According to CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner, some rural areas may have received significant amounts.
“Yesterday’s thunderstorms were triggered by a trough of low pressure moving through Southern Manitoba,” he explained. “The airmass over our area is relatively stagnant, surface winds were light Saturday and winds higher up in the atmosphere were also relatively light. All of that added up to some of these individual storm cells remaining almost stationary for a period of time. There were several cells south of Winkler, as well as west and north of Morden, which according to RADAR imagery more than likely dropped another round of substantial precipitation on top of what was already received Canada Day weekend.”
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Sumner noted most of the precipitation stayed west of a line from Winkler north to the Carman/Elm Creek region.
“Our totals list for Saturday is fairly short, because many of these individual thunderstorm cells were over rural areas without Provincial or Environment Canada weather stations," he said. "It will be up to our Rainwatchers to fill us in on how much those respective places received.”
The following totals are for Saturday, July 6th, and are courtesy PembinaValleyOnline Rainwatchers, Manitoba Ag Weather Network and Environment Canada:
Reinland – 14mm (in about 30 minutes)
Somerset – 10.4mm
Cartwright – 6.1mm
25mm = 1 inch
“We’re expecting at least one more day of unstable conditions that could lead to another round of scattered thunderstorms and showers Sunday afternoon and evening,” noted Sumner. “A trough of low pressure off an upper level low centred of eastern North Dakota, alongside a cold front off a low over northern Manitoba, could be the triggers to kick those storms off later today. Storms that do develop are expected to remain non-severe in nature, but there is a small chance one or two could briefly reach severe limits. We expect thunderstorm chances to continue Monday afternoon, too.”
And it appears Southern Manitoba won’t have to wait much longer for its first heat wave of the Summer, with what’s forecast to be the hottest weather of the season, so far, on the way for later this week.
“Ridging over the western Prairies has been slowly working its way eastward, and will arrive in our region by Tuesday or Wednesday,” he said. “That will mean a southerly flow bringing warmer air to our area, and for what’s expected to be several days. Daytime highs are forecast to push into the upper 20s by mid-week, and potentially even into the low 30s by next weekend, with ample sunshine and a drier pattern overall.”
Averages for this time of year are 26 degrees for a daytime high and 13 degrees for an overnight low.