It is not even fall, yet The Old Farmer's Almanac is providing a sneak peek today at what we can expect for winter here in southeastern Manitoba.
Associate Editor Tim Goodwin says they are forecasting a colder-than-normal winter, with plenty of snow. And, he says the snow showers will start early.
"Beginning of November, you could be starting to see snow showers there in that southeastern corner," he says. "And it's going to start to get cool."
A new edition of The Old Farmer's Almanac is available, beginning today. Those who read it will learn that the winter in southern Manitoba will be nothing like last winter.
"In my more than 20 years as editor, we've never issued a forecast that's as clear as this year's," says Janice Stillman, editor of The Old Farmer's Almanac Canadian Edition. "This winter will be anything but normal for most of North America."
Stillman says nearly every location that typically gets snow, should be prepared for a season of shovelling and shivering.
As far as the snowiest parts of the winter, Goodwin says they are expecting that will be around November 17th to 22nd, the end of December, and the beginning of January. March could also see precipitation, but Goodwin says it could be that we will experience more rain than snow by then.
As for the coldest stretches of the winter, Goodwin says we can expect those to happen in early and late December, early and late January, and mid to late February.
"So, you will get that punch of cold and snowy to end this year and begin next year," adds Goodwin.
As far as any big snowstorms this winter, Goodwin says that stretch from November 17th to 22nd looks like there could be some heavy snow in this part of the province.
The 2025 edition of The Old Farmer's Almanac also gives us a taste of what we can expect for spring and summer. Goodwin says they are forecasting April and May to be warmer than normal with below-average precipitation. As for next summer, he says unfortunately it is looking to be cooler and wetter than normal.
Meanwhile, Goodwin admits that while The Old Farmer's Almanac is 80 per cent accurate historically, the last couple of years have not been as good. He notes they were spot on when it came to precipitation in all regions of Canada last year. However, Goodwin says they did not fare as well in their temperature forecasts.
"Sixty-four per cent wasn't what we were looking for," he says. "But some years are much better than others."
When it comes to making forecasts, The Old Farmer's Almanac relies on a recipe that was first used by Robert B. Thomas in 1792. When Thomas first started making weather forecasts, he took three things into consideration. The first factor was meteorology, which is the localized weather phenomenon that is caused by factors such as mountains, lakes, or localized winds.
The second factor was climatology, which is long-term weather patterns for a particular area. And the third factor was solar science. Through the use of computers, they can find a pattern in history where the weather trends then resemble patterns today. Then, by learning what happened next in history, they can determine what is most likely to happen in our future.