No one ever wants to say goodbye to something they love or admit that a good run is over.
Well, I hate to bring it up, but summer 2024 officially ended on Sunday as the Autumn Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere officially took place on September 22.
While summer will be missed, the show goes on, and Climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) David Phillips caught up with PortageOnline to discuss what the fall will hold for Portage la Prairie.
Before we look at what the fall will be like, we must reflect on what took place in the last few months. Boring might not be the best way to describe many things, but the Climatologist says that being boring and predictable is ideal when it comes to weather.
"This summer was as normal as vanilla," laughs Phillips. "We were out by .1 of a degree in terms of the average."
After experiencing heavy rain in April and May, Phillips mentions that the weather in June, July, and August was drier and more stable in the province.
"I think it was a very positive kind of summer, with plenty of beautiful days. Now, some of that warmth has been left over for the fall. I often say that the early fall weather is based on how you came out of the summer. September is our first kind of fall month, and it has been really hot in southern Manitoba."
As he looks at the fall forecast for September, October, and November, Phillips adds that it's expected to be warmer than usual for this time of year. Yet, it's important to document that this warmth won't be as intense as we typically experience in June or July.
"Temperatures begin to drop significantly, maybe sometimes 5° or 6° cooler in September than expected. We think this fall will be warmer than normal. There's a lot of summer-like weather left in the air. Overall, we think that in September, October, and November, it looks like it will be milder than normal."
Christy Climenhaga, a scientist at ECCC, concurs with Phillips' analysis of future events for our region.
"When we're looking at our fall forecast over the next few months, it is indicating that areas of Manitoba could expect warmer than normal conditions," she continues. "Now remember that normal will be changing as you head through the fall. That doesn't necessarily mean you'll have 25° to 30° every day, but it does mean that there is a better chance of more of those above-seasonal days than below-seasonal days. It is something to keep in mind as we head into the end of our fall period and get toward the winter."
The American, European, and Private Weather Services are all saying the same thing: a warmer fall is in the works, so Phillips jokes that everyone will either be right or very wrong.
"It's looking like you're going to be enjoying the outdoors. I mean, there will be some nasty weather coming here and there. It won't necessarily set up and be that in the long term, and then winter will come. Right now, it's looking like it won't be as cold as we thought it was going to be."
According to Phillips, last year was the warmest winter on record in Manitoba. This was due to El Niño, and we have been prepped for a transition to La Niña this year, which usually means cooler waters and, in turn, a cooler winter. Despite that reputation, Phillips notes that times have changed.
"Our seasons are different now, and winters are warmer than they used to be. Old timers in Manitoba told me, 'Winters aren't what they used to be.' And they're absolutely right about that, and we've seen the statistics. But we'll see how it goes. Winter is still a little ways away."
It's difficult to track precipitation from one day to the next, let alone for the next few months. Nevertheless, Phillips says that things look to be tracking at normal levels.
"Westerners always say to me, 'Well, if you can have that first snow after Halloween, then we won.' And that makes winter feel that much shorter. So, I think it will be a delightful fall. It won't be a muscle-shirt and tank-top kind of weather. It's going to be sweater weather, which can be very favourable."
Stay up to date with the latest weather forecast here.