Airdrie residents who have weekend travel plans may want to monitor the weather closely. The area is under a snowfall warning, and the largest dump of snow is expected Saturday.
While snow is expected to begin falling across Alberta today, with five to 10 centimetres likely by Saturday morning, by tomorrow, snowfall will intensify, potentially accumulating 10 to 15 centimetres.
"It likely will be something to contend with if not for your afternoon commute tonight - for tomorrow," advised Christy Climenhaga, an Environment and Climate Change Canada scientist. "The good news with this snow is, we aren't expecting overly high winds, still some gusts, so maybe to 30 or 40 [kilometres], and this snow does look to be kind of that lighter, fluffy snow that tends to blow around quite a bit with our cooler temperatures."
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The upcoming dump of snow comes on top of a very snowy week. According to Climenhaga, while snowfall accumulations tend to vary due to various factors, reports indicate that the Airdrie and Calgary regions have received anywhere from 10 to 20 centimetres of snow in the last several days. However, despite the predictions that the La Niña effect will occur this winter, Climenhaga said we are not yet entirely under its influence.
"We are still in technically neutral conditions, so we come off of that El Nino, and now, as we are expecting that La Niña forming," she said. "That being said, with this forecast for this upcoming La Niña, it is supposed to be a weaker one, so not quite the same punch in terms of effects as that you'd see with perhaps a very strong La Niña."
However, Airdrie residents can expect cooler-than-normal conditions and wetter-than-normal conditions in Western Canada. But what of the average November conditions? Is it colder and snowier?
Climenhaga said that daily highs for this time of year are closer to zero degrees or near minus one, but while temperatures are not at record lows, it is still much cooler.
"... we've seen that shift, and temperatures are now much cooler than normal in some areas," she said. "[You could be] expecting temperatures a good 10 degrees cooler than normal over the next couple of days."
Can we dream of a white Christmas?
While it is always a gamble to predict whether it will be a white Christmas a little over a month beforehand, Climenhaga said that it is possible.
"It can be a mixed bag with white Christmases. Generally, if you look at all of our Christmases between 1955 and 2023, and take that average, you've got about a 60 to 62 per cent chance of seeing one."
La Niña may up those odds to 65 and 70 percent.
"[But] there is always the risk of getting a Chinook developing and melting," she added.
Airdrie continues to be under a snowfall warning.
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