Environment Canada's Senior Climatologist says it does not appear as though this winter will be a repeat of last year for southern Manitoba. However, David Phillips says they are also not calling for a very cold winter.
"Last year, winter was cancelled in Canada," jokes Phillips, noting it was the warmest on record for Manitoba, going back 77 years.
He adds snowfall totals were about half of normal in 2023-24 for this part of the province.
Though Phillips is not expecting the same type of winter, he says they are still projecting the average temperature will be normal, if not slightly warmer than normal in southern Manitoba. However, as Phillips points out, not all weather services agree on that forecast. For example, The Old Farmer's Almanac is calling for a winter of shoveling and shivering, noting it will be colder than normal, with a lot of snow.
Phillips says last year we were under the influence of an El Nino, and as a result, the warm Pacific waters brought warm air to southern Manitoba. This winter, we will be under the influence of La Nina, which Phillips says has been slow to arrive.
"If it does take hold, which we think it will in December, it will be weak, it will be short-lived, it will have not the impact that it normally would have," he explains.
As for precipitation, Phillips says that is always difficult to forecast so far in advance. However, he says their models are showing above-average precipitation for southern Manitoba for December, January, and February.
"You are going to see more shoveling and plowing and pushing of the snow," he cautions.
Phillips says what that likely means is a winter with more storms for southern Manitoba, which typically come in the form of either a Colorado Low or Alberta Clipper. He says in recent years Manitoba tends to have either too much weather or not enough weather, recalling the spring from a couple of years ago that saw Colorado Low after Colorado Low line up like jumbo jets on a tarmac.
"You want a happy balance of weather," says Phillips. "I would rather have boring weather than anything else. Boring weather is really good news, it's good for the most."
Phillips cautions against assuming that what we have experienced so far will be a dress rehearsal for the rest of the winter. He says sometimes what happens is that the snow starts slow and then all of a sudden, the big storms start to come. Phillips says the models seem to suggest that for this winter the snow will start slow and end strong.