After enduring the coldest two-week stretch of the winter, a big shift in the weather is on its way for residents of southern Manitoba.
Meteorologist Andy Yun with Environment Canada says the cold air is the result of the polar vortex being firmly entrenched over the eastern Arctic, most of the Prairies and down into eastern Canada. So far this winter, there have been nine days where the temperature has dipped below -30 degrees, and five of those days have happened since February 11th.
By Thursday, the daytime high could reach -14 degrees and Yun says you will have to go all the way back to February 9th to find a warmer day. And from there it just keeps getting warmer, with a high of -5 on Friday, zero on Saturday and then four degrees for Sunday.
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"It looks like the polar vortex will start weakening and nudging eastward out of our region," explains Yun. "And that will make way for some milder air to come into the region from the west."
Southern Manitoba has been under an Extreme Cold Warning since the weekend and Yun says that will probably last into Thursday.
Though Environment Canada is forecasting a high of four degrees on Sunday, Yun says it may not be a very pleasant day. He notes that along with the warm air that is coming through, there is a system, potentially an Alberta Clipper that could bring some rain into our area.
"There's a risk of even freezing rain or snow, depending on how this system tracks through," he warns. "The forecast models haven't been exactly handling this situation for the weekend very well. So that could change quite a bit as forecast updates come in."
Yun says there is no indication just yet as to how much rain could fall on Sunday. He notes it will also likely be windy, as Alberta Clippers tend to have wind associated with them.
"Certainly, look out for what could be a breezy weekend," he adds.
Once that system passes through, Yun says the mild weather should linger, but the precipitation should end. Monday and Tuesday are currently forecast to be dry with temperatures right around the freezing mark.
"We're not exactly forecasting an end to winter yet, it's a little early for that," says Yun. "But our longer-range models are suggesting that the milder temperatures, with daytime highs between zero and +3 or 4, that kind of pattern will probably persist right through to the end of February."
With the change in weather in the coming days and an Alberta Clipper looming, Yun encourages everyone to keep a close eye on the forecast and watch for updates.