The Senior Climatologist with Environment Canada says the weather will be very lamb-like to start the month of March.
According to weather folklore, if the weather in March comes in like a lamb, it will go out like a lion, meaning that if the month starts with good weather, it will end with bad weather. David Phillips says he does not put much stock into the saying, noting that it originated in Europe, where there is probably a greater probability of it coming true. However, Phillips says the weather in southern Manitoba to start the month of March will be very tame, with highs well above normal by the second day of the month.
"I don't think this particular jingle necessarily holds true," says Phillips. "It's certainly going to begin lamb-like and for all intents and purposes if the month continues as our forecasts suggests it will, we think it will continue lamb-like for the entire month."
Phillips has now released his spring weather outlook for southern Manitoba. Meteorological spring runs from March 1st through May 31st. Phillips says all of the weather models are in agreement that spring will be warmer than normal and drier than normal for southern Manitoba. He notes the forecast for a dry spring is somewhat concerning for areas in Manitoba where precipitation since September is only about 60 per cent of normal.
"Really you want some of that kind of wet snow or spring rains," he says.
Phillips says a warmer-than-normal spring would certainly be a welcome reprieve for Manitobans, especially considering the kind of February we just wrapped up. He notes February had a dual personality. The first couple of days were mild but then came the coldest three-week stretch of the winter, followed by an abrupt change. In Portage la Prairie, it went from a low of -26 degrees on February 20th, to a high of 5.9 degrees on February 23rd.
"It really was a dramatic change around, from Arctic air, totally dominating southern Manitoba and really the Prairies, to really some Pacific air that came in and started melting things and really did put an end to that very cold," he explains.
Phillips says 16 days in February dropped below -20 degrees in Portage and nine days plummeted to at least -30 degrees or close to it.. The lowest recorded temperature was -31.2 degrees on February 17th.
Phillips says the average daytime high in February was -10.2 degrees for Portage, when the normal is -7 degrees. The average overnight temperature was -20.3 degrees, when the normal is -18.1 degrees.
"That made the average temperature for the entire month about almost 3.5 to 4 degrees colder than normal," he says.
When you crunch the numbers for the entire winter season of December, January, and February, Phillips says we had over 40 days of at least -20 degrees, when 46 is normal. There were nine days of at least -30 degrees, when 13 is normal. He says the entire winter season ended up being nearly one degree warmer than normal, even though February was so cold.
Meanwhile, Phillips says there is certainly change in the air. He points out that days are getting longer, with daylight hours growing by about three minutes and 40 seconds each day. Phillips notes the sun angle is also a little higher, which is noticeable by the warmth on the skin. Phillips says on average March is about seven degrees warmer than February.
Having said that, Phillips stresses that it is still too soon to put away the shovel, noting southern Manitoba tends to get about 25 per cent of its annual snowfall after March 1st. He notes the snow at this time of the year tends to be more of the wet variety, and considering the favourable flood outlook, that is not a bad thing.
"There is no flood issue this year right now, although some of those Colorado Lows can come up in late March and April and change the situation quite dramatically," he says. "But right now I think the situation looks pretty good."
Phillips says we can still expect some wintery days to come, but he notes the situation tends to be quite different this time of year. Unlike January and February when the polar vortex can bring cold snaps lasting two or three weeks, Phillips says in March the cold air usually does not stick around for more than two or three days at a time.
"I've looked at the next two weeks and what really stands out to me, is the warmth seems to stay," notes Phillips. "And we don't see any major systems coming for the next week or so, just flurries here or there when we get towards this time next week."