Southern Manitoba is getting a spring preview this weekend, with sunshine and mild temperatures expected through Saturday — but rain, wind and even a touch of snow could return by Sunday night.
Stephen Berg, meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, says the warm-up is thanks to a front that moved in from the west.
“A warm front just came over the southern part of the province from west to east,” said Berg. “It's giving us quite a temperature jump from below normal temperatures in the last little bit to highs in the mid to high teens for much of the weekend, including today.”
Rain and snow possible late Sunday
The pleasant conditions are not expected to last the entire weekend. Berg says a new system will begin to impact the western part of the province by Sunday morning, eventually pushing into the Southeast.
“There's a system coming from the west that's going to be starting as rain for southwestern Manitoba Sunday morning,” he explained. “That looks to go in towards the southeastern part of the province... still looking like some decent chances for some rain and maybe just a little bit of snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.”
Environment Canada is also monitoring the potential for strong winds as the system moves through.
“It's looking like possible wind gusts up to about 50 to 60 kilometres per hour,” said Berg. “That would be mostly from Sunday evening into Monday morning and into the afternoon hours before the system leaves into northwestern Ontario.”
Forecast models have shifted
Berg notes that forecast models have varied significantly over the past few days, making the weekend system more difficult to predict than usual.
“There was a run of one of the models that was showing quite a snow dumping for the Red River Valley,” he said. “But that's since moved off into northwestern Ontario, giving the southeast corner up to maybe five centimetres of snow... for the Red River Valley itself, it doesn't look like there’s going to be substantial accumulations at all.”
He says heavier snow, if any, is expected north of the valley.
“Maybe some four to eight centimetres in the Parklands... Riding Mountain, Duck Mountain area, and then that southeast Manitoba corner.”
Travel caution for early Monday
With temperatures expected to dip below freezing overnight Sunday into Monday — and again Monday night — Berg is warning drivers to be cautious if rain does fall.
“You might end up having some surfaces freeze, so the roadways, if they do have some standing water, might end up having some ice coverage,” he said.
Despite the short-lived return to wintery weather, Berg says the precipitation could be beneficial for southern Manitoba’s farmers.
“It can’t hurt to have some extra moisture down for the farmers for seeding and stuff too — as long as it’s not too much that the soil can’t handle.”