Airdronians looking ahead to the May long weekend are facing conflicting signals from long-range forecasts, with three national sources offering different pictures of what’s to come — and even sharper disagreements about the summer.
The Farmers' Almanac forecasts "generally fair skies initially" from May 16 to 19, but adds that "some rain mars Victoria Day festivities for Alberta [and the] Prairies." It projects "clearing skies" and "pleasant weather" beginning May 20 and continuing eastward through Manitoba by midweek.
The Old Farmer's Almanac calls for "very warm" weather from May 15 to 21, with "sunny" conditions in the east and "intervals of t-storms, some heavy" in the west. Its extended May forecast continues with "showers" in the east and "t-storms" in the west from May 22 to 31.
The Weather Network, providing the most detailed regional breakdown, anticipates a relatively dry start to the weekend for Airdrie and area.
As of Wednesday morning, the 14-day trend predicted daytime highs for May 16 and 17 are expected to reach 15 to 16°C with a mix of sun and cloud and a 30 per cent chance of rain. Showers are forecast to begin Saturday night, with a 60 per cent chance of precipitation and up to 10 millimetres possible. Light rain is expected to continue into Sunday, with daytime totals between two and four millimetres.
Victoria Day Monday is forecast to bring a return to mixed skies, with a high of 15°C and no major wind or precipitation concerns currently projected. All three sources agree that temperatures will be warm, but diverge on rainfall timing and severity heading into the holiday. The split continues into the summer outlooks.
The Old Farmer's Almanac is forecasting a cooler and wetter summer for much of Canada's southern tier, including Alberta. It expects "cooler-than-normal temperatures" across the southern Prairies and "above-normal rainfall" across most of the country, including southern B.C., Ontario and Atlantic Canada.
The Farmers' Almanac, by contrast, predicts above-average heat beginning in July. Its summer forecast states that "much of the nation [will be] sweltering," with the potential for high temperature records to fall. Precipitation is expected to be near normal across most regions, though it highlights drier-than-normal conditions in British Columbia and parts of Alberta — a combination it says could "possibly lend itself to widespread wildfire activity."
Both almanacs rely on proprietary blends of historical trends, sunspot cycles and internal models. Neither forecast is endorsed by Environment Canada.
As of May 7, Environment Canada had not issued any long-range projections for the May long weekend or summer. Its seven-day forecast for the Calgary region includes mainly sunny conditions and a high of 20°C on Wednesday, followed by a chance of afternoon showers and a high of 16°C on Thursday.
Friday is expected to be partly cloudy with a high of 19°C, and Saturday's outlook calls for sun and a high of 20°C. Sunday is forecast to be cloudy with a high near 16°C. Rain is expected to move in on Monday and Tuesday, with projected highs of 10°C and 8°C respectively.
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