The early season heat wave continued Monday, alongside Heat Warnings which remain in effect today, and for the second consecutive day new daytime high records were set in a number of Southern Manitoba communities for May 12th.
"We continued to see the influence of atmospheric ridging over much of Southern Manitoba, along with southwesterly flow aloft and strong southerly winds at the surface," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "That combination continues to produce the conditions necessary for this unusually warm stretch of mid-May weather we are in the midst of."
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The average daytime high for this point of the month is 20 degrees, with the overnight low 6 degrees. Since Saturday, most of the region has been 8 to 15 degrees warmer that.
"And even warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday, perhaps the hottest day of this record setting start to the week," according to Sumner. The forecast is calling for highs of 37 degrees across the Pembina and Red River Valleys, with gusty southerly winds up to 60 km/h.
According to Environment Canada, the following set new daytime high records for Monday, May 12th:
CARMAN AREA (Carman U Of M CS)
New record of 36.2
Old record of 33.5 set in 1987
Records in this area have been kept since 1895
WINNIPEG AREA (Winnipeg A CS)
New record of 35.6
Old record of 32.8 set in 1958
Records in this area have been kept since 1872
DEERWOOD AREA (Deerwood RCS)
New record of 35.4
Old record of 33.0 set in 1987
Records in this area have been kept since 1952
ALTONA AREA (Gretna (AUT))
New record of 34.8
Old record of 32.8 set in 1958
Records in this area have been kept since 1949
STEINBACH AREA (Kleefeld (MAFRI))
New record of 34.7
Old record of 32.8 set in 1958
Records in this area have been kept since 1956
PILOT MOUND AREA (Pilot Mound (AUT))
New record of 34.5
Old record of 31.0 set in 1977
Records in this area have been kept since 1938
MELITA AREA (Melita)
New record of 33.9
Old record of 33.3 set in 1977
Records in this area have been kept since 1936
CARBERRY AREA (Carberry CS)
New record of 33.3
Old record of 31.1 set in 1977
Records in this area have been kept since 1962
"The spread between the former records and the new ones set Monday wasn't as large as Sunday, but still ranged from close to one to three degrees," noted Sumner who pointed toward the forecast models indicating the start of dramatic turn in the forecast on Wednesday for parts of the province.
Dramatic shift in weather pattern for May Long
"It is likely we're going to go from having the air conditioning cranked to start the week to needing the furnace for May Long Weekend," he said. "As the ridge moves eastward, a strong upper level low will move northward out of the U.S., through the Dakotas and into Manitoba. This low will be the primary weather maker for the coming long weekend, with it leading to a much cooler airmass being pulled southward out of northern Canada, and also much needed accumulating rainfall. Temperatures will return to seasonal for Southwestern Manitoba Wednesday, but the ridge will hang on in the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba until potentially Thursday. Rain is likely in the southwest for Thursday, while drier conditions hang on in areas further east. By Friday, all of Southern Manitoba will have transitioned to the new pattern, and be under the influence of that low pressure system, meaning wet conditions and much cooler temperatures, possibly up to twenty degrees cooler than what we're seeing right now."