Portage la Prairie residents should brace for a soggy and blustery May long weekend as Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasts significant rainfall, gusty winds, and even the chance of snow.
Stephen Berg, meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, says anywhere between 30 to 60 millimetres of rain could fall by the end of Friday.
Wet and smoky Thursday
Conditions begin to deteriorate Thursday with rain, a risk of thunderstorms, and widespread smoke.
The official forecast calls for heavy rain with a risk of thunderstorms, local rainfall amounts between 10 to 20 millimetres, and north winds at 30 km/h, gusting to 50. The high for Thursday is 17°C.
By Thursday night, heavy rain continues, again with a risk of thunderstorms. Smoke lingers, and another 15 to 25 millimetres of rain is possible. Winds remain from the north at 30 km/h, gusting to 50, with a low of 8°C.
Friday brings cold, wind—and maybe snow
By Friday, conditions worsen. The forecast includes heavy rain, local smoke, and 10 to 15 millimetres of additional precipitation. Winds ramp up significantly, coming from the north at 50 km/h, gusting to 80, with temperatures falling to 3°C in the afternoon.
Friday night, rain could transition to rain or snow, with temperatures dropping to plus 1°C and continued strong winds.
"There are models that are indicating some mixed precipitation, so it is a slight possibility with the temperatures dropping to plus one in the overnight period," Berg remarks.
"It's hard to tell exactly how much it will accumulate, if snow does occur, especially since the ground is quite warm."
Cool weekend, slow warm-up next week
Saturday remains cloudy with a high of just 6°C, well below seasonal norms. Sunshine returns Sunday and Monday with highs of 13°C and 16°C, respectively. Another round of unsettled weather is possible Tuesday, with a 60 per cent chance of showers and a high of 12°C.
Berg continues, "Looks like kind of building up towards more normal conditions by midweek or so."
"By mid-week it looks to be recovered back to normal values and might be a little bit of showery activity as it gets towards normal."
Smoke and wind advisories remain in effect
Smoke continues to affect air quality in the region. The incoming rain may help, but the extent of its impact remains uncertain.
Berg warns of high wind gusts Friday, particularly for drivers and anyone outdoors.
"Just make sure things are fastened. There might be a bit of a challenge in terms of driving, especially if you're on the TransCanada since the winds are coming from the north. Crosswinds will make the make driving conditions not so good, especially for higher profile vehicles."
The conditions stem from a Colorado Low low-pressure system moving up from the southwest.
Recent heat sets records
Despite the turn to cooler weather, earlier this week saw record-breaking heat across parts of southern Manitoba.
On Tuesday, Portage set a new record of 33.3 degrees surpassing the old record of 32.6 set in 1977.