Drivers in Portage la Prairie can expect summer fuel prices to remain relatively steady over the coming months, with average rates currently sitting between $1.34 per litre.
Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy, says the shift to summer gasoline blends is already complete, which typically adds about five cents per litre to production costs. However, a simultaneous $10-per-barrel drop in oil prices helped neutralize the effect, leaving pump prices largely unchanged for now.
"Summer gasoline will be here until the 15th of September," McTeague says. "What you’re seeing now at the pumps is likely to remain for the month of June."
Start of U.S. demand season adds pressure
The Memorial Day weekend in the United States marks the official launch of summer driving season, historically a time of higher fuel demand. That can influence prices across the border in Canada, particularly in regions like southern Manitoba.
"There could be anything from high demand, refineries running into trouble, to circumstances around weather systems in the U.S. Gulf Coast," McTeague notes. "Those could be a threat right until September or October."
While those factors could nudge prices upward, McTeague says there’s another major element at play that might push in the opposite direction — a deteriorating economic picture in the United States.
Debt burden weighs on U.S. economy
America’s creditworthiness is under renewed scrutiny after a downgrade last week, which cited a mounting federal debt now sitting at roughly $34 trillion. McTeague says that number is almost double Canada's per capita debt burden and could signal deeper instability.
"If there’s a collapse in the bond markets or a sudden surge in bond yields, that could trigger economic downturn signals," he says. "That might put downward pressure on fuel prices."
Canada’s own economy isn’t immune. With the Canadian dollar weakening, now requiring 140 cents to purchase a U.S. dollar, up from 132 just two years ago, the cost of imported goods, including fuel, continues to rise.
Prices steady, but risks remain
In the absence of major storms, refinery failures or a rapid economic slowdown, Portage drivers should see consistency at the pumps. The return to winter gasoline in mid-September may offer a slight price dip, barring external shocks.
"Prices are, sort of, the base," McTeague adds. "We can see prices remaining here until at least the 15th of September, unless unpredictable factors push them higher."
He emphasizes that while political speculation often points fingers at global leaders, energy pricing depends more on natural disasters, supply decisions from OPEC, and long-term fiscal health than individual administrations.
Outlook cautious heading into fall
Although Parliament will soon recess for the summer, McTeague warns that fall could bring policy shifts. He expects the Liberal government, now under Mark Carney’s leadership, to reintroduce industrial carbon regulations, which could eventually push costs upward again.
"We’re not seeing anything dramatic right now,” he says. “But keep an eye on the broader economic landscape. That’s what will ultimately shape what happens next at the pumps."