A cold front moving across the province is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms to parts of southern and central Alberta Monday afternoon, with Airdrie on the southern edge of the threat zone, according to Environment Canada.
"Now we do have a feature moving through the area in the form of a cold front that will move from west to east across Alberta that will initiate showers and thunderstorms today," said Justin Shelley, meteorologist with Environment Canada.
He said the system is interacting with a warm air mass already in place.
"We’re still going to be under the influence of a large upper ridge, which is allowing for this warm air mass to be in place," Shelley said. "With that, we're seeing those temperatures rise up into the mid to high 20s in the area, which is almost about roughly 10 degrees above average for this time of year."
The average daytime high for May 26 in the Airdrie area is about 18 C.
Shelley said the expected thunderstorms are likely to be "relatively high-based in nature," with strong wind gusts and small hail possible.
"The primary threats associated with those thunderstorms will be strong wind gusts, possibly upwards of 100 kilometres per hour, and some small hail, but maybe upwards of nickel to Toony size hail," he said.
"The timing for that will be later this afternoon; we’ll start to see some initiation farther west, and then those thunderstorms will track to the east throughout the day and into the evening hours throughout northern and central Alberta," Shelley said.
He added there remains uncertainty over whether Airdrie and Calgary will fall within the area of greatest risk.
"Certainly, the Airdrie-Calgary area looks like they're just going to be on the southern edge," he said. "Still a bit of uncertainty on whether that specific part of the province is going to see these thunderstorms, but the risk for that area will be sort of mid-afternoon to mid-evening today."
According to Environment Canada’s official forecast issued at 5:00 a.m. Monday, Airdrie is expected to reach a high of 26 C, with increasing cloudiness by noon and a risk of showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. Wind will become southwest 30 km/h, gusting to 50.
Tonight, a few showers or thunderstorms are expected to end by evening, followed by clearing skies and an overnight low of 5 C. Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to be sunny, with highs of 24 C and 27 C respectively.
Shelley said it is possible that Environment Canada could issue watches as conditions evolve.
"It is likely we could see some thunderstorm watches issued later this morning or early this afternoon, should the environment become conducive and its constant increases in the threat," he said.
Shelley said residents should remain weather-aware even under a watch.
"It's not until we get the thunderstorm warnings that go out that you need to, you know, be more concerned and take immediate action," he said. "But you can still take some actions, even if it's just a watch that’s issued, be aware of the forecast of the day."
He said Calgary and Airdrie remain on a "fine line" regarding the severity of the storms.
"Even areas outside the main, primary start area could still see some thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail," Shelley said.
Daytime highs are expected to remain above average through the week, with potential peak heat coming midweek.
"We start to heat back up, relatively speaking, Wednesday into Thursday, as that upper ridge starts to redevelop and those daytime highs, excuse me, reach into the high 20s," Shelley said. "Slight chance we might reach 30 degrees in and around the region Wednesday and Thursday."
Shelley said Thursday night could bring a return of storm conditions.
"It looks like Thursday night, we could see a similar setup come through with another cold frontal passage that could bring some additional showers and thunderstorms to the area," he said.
Despite the heat, Shelley said current forecast models suggest daytime records will likely hold. He said Thursday, May 29, offers "the best chance of breaking a daily record," but even then the record of 30.0 C, set in 1934, is likely to hold.
Shelley said the setup could also bring funnel cloud activity, but that is not the primary concern.
"As the thunderstorms are going to be formed along a boundary and a frontal feature, there is always the chance that you could see a brief spin-up or a funnel cloud along that boundary," he said. "But again, that won't be the primary threat with these thunderstorms today."
Looking ahead to June, Shelley said the region may briefly cool.
"Generally speaking, it looks like we could see a bit of a cool down sometime in the first week of June," he said.
Environment Canada’s long-range models suggest the cooler trend may be short-lived.
"June overall, in the extended or the seasonal models are indicating still above average temperatures throughout Alberta," Shelley said.
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