In its 2025 operational review, mining giant BHP announced a delay in entering production and for its proposed second phase startup at its Jansen potash site.
The company, whose first venture into potash production is at the Jansen site, estimates its capital expenditure to have risen to the $7 to $7.4 billion US range, up from its original estimate of $5.7 billion. That’s part of the decision for the return to the original schedule for first production of mid-2027 as opposed to the final quarter of 2026.
The report says the increase is largely driven by inflation and cost escalation pressures, changes in design and scope, and a lower estimated production return over the construction phase.
Those factors are also influencing the consideration of a two-year postponement for the second stage of the project, pushing back that target by two years to 2031. There is also the prospect of additional potash entering the market, making an earlier start less attractive.
“Given potential for additional potash supply coming to the market in the medium term, and as part of our regular review of the sequencing of capital projects under the capital allocation framework, we are considering a two-year extension for the execution of Jansen Stage 2,” noted the company’s statement.
The BHP announcement has the opposition New Democrats eyeing the provincial government’s spring budget which is partly based on projected revenues from potash.
“This mine is a gamechanger and I look forward to the day it’s fully open,” said Sally Housser, Saskatchewan NDP Shadow Minister for Energy & Resources. “But the Government staked a lot of revenue numbers on this project coming online. The delay could add another hole to a Sask. Party budget that already had no basis in reality. We have said before, the Sask. Party’s budget isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.”
An NDP release also cites concern for an over-optimistic projection on oil prices, which have yet to hit target values. The fear is the double-edged sword of cuts and/or increasing debt.
“Will they resort to further cuts to healthcare and education, where we’re already last in the country? Or will they perform the Scott Moe special and, yet again, pile on more debt?”
“The provincial debt is forecast already to reach $27.4 billion by March 2029 — that will represent a 149 per cent increase since Moe took over as Premier in 2018,” Housser concluded.