Saskatchewan’s Deputy Premier says the province is holding strong in an uncertain global economy — with low unemployment, growing tax revenues, and one of the best fiscal positions in the country — but warned that external shocks like international tariffs and falling oil prices still pose risks.
Speaking in an interview during a visit to Moose Jaw this week, Finance Minister Jim Reiter offered a bullish assessment of Saskatchewan’s current performance. He said the province continues to lead in economic indicators, with Canada’s lowest unemployment rate, robust revenue growth, and a commitment to a balanced budget.
“Our corporate income tax, personal income tax, and PST are all up — not because of tax hikes, but because of the strength of the economy and more people working,” Reiter said.
“I sometimes get lost in the minutiae, but the fact of the matter is, why the fiscal position is so important — it's not money for the sake of money, it's so that we can provide those important services we're talking about to Saskatchewan citizens.”
The government is projecting a $12 million surplus this year, with net debt-to-GDP among the lowest in Canada. Reiter admitted that such a thin surplus effectively reflects a balanced budget rather than reliable extra funding, and said he's OK with that, given current global instabilities.
Saskatchewan also retains a top-tier credit rating, which Reiter said reflects years of careful budgeting and an effort to stabilize finances after the revenue whiplash of 2020 and 2021.
“We’re not out of the woods when it comes to uncertainty, but Saskatchewan is in a strong position,” he said.
Tariffs cast a shadow on trade success
Even so, Reiter acknowledged that international trade friction is starting to bite. U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs haven’t yet shown clear economic consequences, because Donald Trump has proven unable to stay consistent.
"You've seen what's been happening — It's very erratic. Outside of the steel and aluminum, there hasn't been a huge impact there yet."
However, Chinese restrictions on canola meal, peas, and other agricultural products are having a tangible effect — especially in Saskatchewan, where canola is a central pillar of the agri-food economy.
“That’s having a significant impact and we would like to see that get straightened away,” Reiter said.
“It affects the whole supply chain — from farmers and processors to the export terminals. And when that part of the economy slows down, it has a ripple effect.”
He said the provincial government has been “forceful” in lobbying Ottawa to resolve the dispute and protect Saskatchewan’s key exports, but declined to criticize federal ministers directly.
“We’ve raised it numerous times,” he said. “It’s something we’re watching very closely.”
While Saskatchewan's main trading partner remains the United States, global market access for agricultural commodities and critical minerals has been an increasing focus for Premier Scott Moe’s government, especially as the province pushes for greater autonomy over export development.
Volatile commodity prices and budget caution
Asked about the budget's underlying risks, Reiter was candid: Resource revenue volatility remains Saskatchewan’s central fiscal vulnerability.
While potash prices have held steady, oil prices have dipped, raising concerns that the province’s windfall years may be slowing. In a resource-based economy, the line between surplus and deficit can shift quickly.
“We’ve tried to be prudent in how much of our budget is exposed to natural resource swings,” he said.
“We think we’ve found a pretty good balance — around 15 per cent. Our neighbours in Alberta live and die by oil price variability. We’re more diversified.”
He noted that natural resources once made up over 30 per cent of Saskatchewan’s budget revenues. That number has fallen as the government has worked to broaden the economic base, relying more on income and sales taxes while investing in agriculture, manufacturing, and technology.
Still, drought conditions in the southwest and record-breaking wildfires in the north could put pressure on both revenues and expenditures. Reiter said firefighting costs are expected to rise significantly and may require mid-year adjustments. However, despite droughts in some parts of the province, he believes this year's harvest will be positive.
"In large parts of the province ... the crops look great," he said.
Health care and hiring remain top priorities
Though the province’s fiscal outlook is broadly positive, pressure continues to build on the health system, where labour shortages and service interruptions have triggered public concern in recent months.
Reiter noted that many of the new healthcare positions announced last week — including some based in Moose Jaw — were funded by efficiency savings within the Saskatchewan Health Authority, not new taxation or borrowing.
“The challenges we’re facing in Saskatchewan aren’t unique — every province is struggling to find and retain healthcare professionals,” he said.
“We’re attacking it from all sides: training expansion, immigration, retention, and innovation.”
Reiter reiterated that labour force growth through targeted immigration remains essential to sustaining services and tax revenues in the long term.
Confidence in leadership
Despite the uncertainty of global markets, climate pressures, and ongoing tension with the federal government over issues ranging from resource policy to immigration, Reiter said Saskatchewan remains on the right track — and that the Moe government’s record shows it can handle whatever comes next.
“We’ve got more people working, more investment coming in, and a better financial position than almost any other province,” he said.
“That’s not accidental. It’s because we’ve focused on growing the economy, keeping taxes competitive, and spending responsibly.”
He added that the coming year will bring new pressures — particularly if U.S. trade policy hardens or weather disasters escalate further — but that the province’s financial footing gives it options.
“Saskatchewan’s not just surviving — we’re growing,” he said. “And we’ll keep pushing to make sure that growth benefits everyone in the province.”