Alberta remains in a strong position, despite a projected 2.5 per cent drop in revenues this year, according to Provincial Fiscal Outlook, a new report released July 29 by The Conference Board of Canada.
The report finds that all Canadian provinces are expected to run deficits in the current fiscal year, with sluggish economic growth and high interest rates weighing on government revenues.
“Provinces will continue to feel the pinch from higher interest rates brought on by spending due to the pandemic and subsequent deficits,” said Richard Forbes, Principal Economist at The Conference Board of Canada, in a news release. “Demographics are creating an additional challenge to regional economies with the combination of retirees and slower population growth. However, our fiscal outlook brightens over the next five years as governments are broadly planning to reduce spending and will benefit from stronger economic growth across the country.”
Alberta continues to hold the lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio in the country, providing what the report calls a “cushion” against extended low oil prices or investment headwinds in the energy sector. Revenues are forecast to rebound with 3.6 per cent annual growth between 2026–27 and 2029–30.
In Saskatchewan, revenues are projected to rise 5.7 per cent in 2025–26 and average 3.3 per cent yearly until 2029–30. While oil royalties are expected to remain flat in the near term, the Conference Board anticipates higher potash output and a rebound in oil prices to support resource revenues in the years ahead.
Manitoba’s revenues are forecast to rise by 6.3 per cent this year. According to the Conference Board, this is “strong growth compared to the other provinces.” Spending growth, particularly in healthcare and education, is slated to moderate between 2026 and 2029, with average annual revenue gains of 2.9 per cent over that period.
British Columbia is facing a slowdown in investment, although revenues are expected to rise 4.1 per cent in 2025–26, supported by increased royalties. Growth is forecast to average 3.5 per cent annually through 2029–30.
Ontario’s fiscal outlook remains stable despite exposure to U.S. trade tensions. Provincial revenues are forecast to fall by 0.1 per cent this year, after growing 6.0 per cent last year. Between 2026–27 and 2029–30, revenue growth is expected to average 3.2 per cent annually.
Quebec is projected to see revenue growth of just 1.1 per cent in 2025, down sharply from 6.6 per cent last year. The report notes that fiscal restraint will be needed to restore balance, with healthcare spending expected to bear the brunt. Revenues are anticipated to grow at an average annual rate of 3.4 per cent through 2029.
In Atlantic Canada, Prince Edward Island leads the country in population growth over the past decade and is forecast to see revenue rise 5.7 per cent in 2025–26. Growth is expected to average 3.5 per cent annually to 2030.
Newfoundland and Labrador faces demographic challenges, with a projected population decline of 10,000 over five years. However, the completion of the Terra Nova Platform is expected to boost oil and gas output. Revenues are forecast to grow 2.1 per cent in 2025–26, and 2.7 per cent annually thereafter.
Nova Scotia is projecting an $82-million surplus for the previous fiscal year but expects a 2.3 per cent drop in revenue in 2025–26. Annual growth of 2.6 per cent is forecast between 2026 and 2030.
New Brunswick’s forestry sector remains a risk due to exposure to U.S. tariffs. Nonetheless, revenues are projected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2025–26 and 2.8 per cent annually through 2029–30.
All provincial figures are drawn directly from Provincial Fiscal Outlook, published by The Conference Board of Canada on July 29, 2025.
Sign up to get the latest local news headlines delivered directly to your inbox every afternoon.
Send your news tips, story ideas, pictures, and videos to news@discoverairdrie.com. You can also message and follow us on Twitter: @AIR1061FM.
DiscoverAirdrie encourages you to get your news directly from your trusted source by bookmarking this page and downloading the DiscoverAirdrie app.