It wasn’t just your imagination — July brought heavy, record-setting rainfall to the Calgary area, with Airdrie also seeing above-normal precipitation totals.
“It was a very wet month across southern Alberta, especially around the Calgary area and even just to the southwest of Calgary,” said Christy Climenhaga, a scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada. “Airdrie, though [had] above normal for precipitation, but heavy, heavy rainfall; a couple of rainfall events in the month of July, tipping the scales and making for a very wet one; and a cooler last half of the month as well.”
At Calgary International Airport, total precipitation for July reached 162.1 millimetres.
“The normal over the last 30 years, averaged all out, is about 65.7 millimetres,” Climenhaga said. “Just looking at records on the wettest Julys … the wettest July on record was in 1927, where you saw 245.4 millimetres, second place 2016 at 206.1, but it looks like this July comes in as the third wettest on record for Calgary.”
Climenhaga said the province saw a wide range in rainfall.
“A lot of rainfall into southern Alberta, into the southern foothills, but very, very dry conditions for July in much of northern Alberta,” she said.
She confirmed the recent pattern is not linked to La Niña or El Niño.
“We’ve spent the summer in what we call ENSO neutral,” she said.
Looking ahead to the Heritage Day long weekend, Climenhaga said the forecast “does look fairly unsettled.”
“We do have some warmer weather for today; temperatures in the high 20s once again, or maybe close to that 30-degree mark,” she said. “And then a return to slightly cooler conditions, temperatures more seasonal tomorrow. And then, you know, maybe a little bit cooler over the weekend.”
“We could see quite a bit of convection, some thunderstorm activity through the weekend,” she added.
Environment Canada’s local forecast for Airdrie supports that outlook. On Saturday, August 2, the region is expected to see a mix of sun and cloud in the morning, becoming cloudy near noon with a few showers and a risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon. The high is 21 degrees with a humidex of 26. The UV index is rated at 7, or high.
Saturday night will bring showers and a low of 14.
Sunday, August 3, calls for steady rain and a high of 16 degrees. Overnight, skies will remain cloudy with a 60 per cent chance of showers and a low of 10.
Monday, August 4, is forecast to be cloudy with a 60 per cent chance of showers and a high of 20. That same 60 per cent chance continues Monday night, with a low of 9.
Asked about the outlook for August, Climenhaga said longer-range models show signs of above-normal precipitation for much of southern Alberta.
"Our models are pulling in wetter conditions for much of southern Alberta,” she said. “Again, our precipitation forecast long range can be tricky, but there is that wetter note for much of southern Alberta.”
She cautioned that rainfall patterns are hard to model precisely.
“With temperature forecast, we usually see better success,” she said. “Our models are often a little bit better at predicting that. With precipitation, it can be tricky, and it's often because of its more volatile nature. You can get a couple of big storms that tip the scales and put your numbers, you know, drop a month's worth of rain in a couple of days. Or you can have storms all around but miss the station that you're at.”
As for temperatures, the outlook is less certain.
“Temperature-wise, still a bit of a question mark,” Climenhaga said. “There are warmer-than-normal trends for most of northern Alberta with pretty high confidence, but southern Alberta is a little bit of a question mark.”
“Slightly warmer-than-normal note possible, but also not really seeing a trend in that area,” she said. “So we'll have to wait and see exactly how that pans out. But at this point, temperature will be a little bit of a question mark for much of southern Alberta for August.”
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