Harvest is back on track and farmers are pushing hard to get as much grain in the bin as possible before the rain showers come.
For many across the Westman Region the crops have done fairly well, with some crops doing exceptionally well, such as pea fields east of Killarney. For some, yields are being reported at an average of 80-85 bu/acre. Last week's Foodgrains field northeast of Killarney yielded an average of 73.44 bu/acre.
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Applied Research Analyst with Manitoba Agriculture, Scott Chalmers, says they are also seeing healthy yields in a number of their crops. However, there are certain fields that came short, one of those being winter wheat. Typically, winter wheat surpasses spring wheat in yield, but not this year.
"Probably the biggest disappointment has been winter cereals. You know, when we really needed a rainfall early in the year, it just wasn't there," he explains. "We had a great seeding year, but you know, by June we still hadn't got a rain for those winter cereals and really they pulled back quite a bit in order to kind of survive their yield."
And so, we're seeing 55-bushel winter wheat per acre, as compared to our spring wheat, which has been very good here, running from 60 to about 80 bushels to the acre. So usually, winter wheat will surpass spring wheat in yield, but this year it's spring wheat, just because of the later rains that we got."
With rye, they're seeing under 90 bu/acre, around that 85 mark. "So, we have had rye go over 100 before, but not this year," he adds.
Chalmers is pleased with their pea crops near Melita as well. "Out here we're seeing up to about 65 bu/acre, but right in there with what you guys were getting basically really clean crop, big, big giant seeds. We had quite a bit of root rot though, and I wasn't sure if that was maybe pulling back a bit of potential there, but nonetheless a pretty decent crop there."
Patchy rains and soil conditions create wide yield gaps in canola and cereals
Across the Westman Region canola is at a variety of stages depending on how early farmers could seed and the patchy rains that did fall.
In the Melita area, farmers have started harvesting canola, yielding anywhere from 37 bu/acre on lighter land where it's more gravelly under the topsoil to up to 60 bu/acre around the Waskada area where the land is quite heavy.
"With barley, we've seen around 90 to 100 bu/acre. But oats were kind of disappointing around 125 bu/acre," shares Chalmers. "I know that sounds good to some folks, but in our small plots that's quite bad. They too ran out of water when they needed water the most, and then at the end of the year we've seen a little bit of shatter losses. So, when we had that moist weather a couple of weeks back, basically the gloom kind of rots off the plant and then the seed falls to the ground and that's so disappointing when you've got a decent crop coming, but you just couldn't get in there in time."
"We have lots of crops still out there. Some of our late crops like sunflower, corn, soybeans, they look great, and they've really benefited from some of our later rains in July."
The soybean test plots at WADO are actually quite green, says Chalmers.
"We're kind of stuck in an R7 stage... R6, R7," he explains. "We've got to get to R8, to mature at least, and the other morning here we had a touch of frost in the area here, maybe about minus half a degree. But other than that, it wasn't too bad. We got lots of leaf scorching going on just in soybeans alone. I haven't seen really anything in sunflower or corn, so that was a close one, but not too bad."
Just north of Brandon farmers saw night temps dip down to -2C which may not affect corn crops, but soybeans may be seeing some pod damage he says.
Cooler cycle and incoming rain threaten harvest push
Chalmers noted that by the end of the week, a significant weather system is expected to move through, bringing rain and cooler temperatures. “But after that,” he said, “we might be able to keep going. It doesn’t look like we’ll see a frost following the system, which is great news. Typically, there’s a cold hangover after a big fall storm, but not this time.”
He went on to explain that growing degree days are currently about 8% behind, so there’s still some ground to make up. “Maybe mid-September will open up again,” he added optimistically.
Chalmers also pointed out that the region is currently stuck in a colder cycle, influenced by changes in the Pacific, with La Niña cooling off and shifting toward a neutral phase. “We just need to be patient,” he advised. “And maybe use desiccants wisely.”
He emphasized that desiccants are much more effective on warm days like today, compared to colder conditions.
“Timing it close to the storm might work well too,” he suggested, “so that once the system passes, things can dry down properly and we can get back into the field.”
But the days are getting shorter, and farmers have a shorter window to harvest and now cooler days, with more rain in the forecast.
Chalmers: “We might weather this yet” as global demand offers hope
The impact on Canada’s canola industry follows China’s imposition of a 75.8% tariff on Canadian canola seed, and as these tariffs continue to suppress cash prices for one of the country’s most valuable crops, farming experts warn that producers face critical decisions ahead.
"Obviously diversifying your marketing options are great, but really China did take a good third of that canola," says Chalmers, "and just to put it into perspective, at this time last year, canola was $2.00 cheaper, and we had China on our side. But this year we don't have China, yet we're $2.00 more a bushel. So, I think for price stability, we're kind of weathering that out."
"Now you know with inflation and everything, we're trying to battle our bills at this time of year," he continues. "Is $2.00 more a bushel better than it was last year? Marginally it might actually just be about the same. So, considering we've lost China as a customer at this point, and we're still at a decent margin, I guess a nice-looking crop out there to make up for that, maybe we can weather this one pretty good. And then if China does come on board sometime then maybe things will look even better."
"So, we'll just kind of hold out here and see what the demand across the world looks like and see what some of these other crops too do around the world as well. So, you know, maybe another country will have a blowout on yield, and we can make up for that loss," adds Chalmers.
Listen to more of the conversation with Scott Chalmers below.