Environment Canada is forecasting near-record heat in Airdrie on Saturday, days before the official start of fall.
Crawford Luke, meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said the forecast high is 28 °C — almost double the seasonal normal of 15 °C.
“The historical record for this day for Airdrie is 29.4 degrees, and that was back in 1922 so over 100 years ago,” Luke said in a Sept. 19 interview. “We’re forecasting 28, we’re going to be in that ballpark of 28–29. We’ll see if we break the record. But even if we don’t, this certainly will be one of the warmest September 20s on record for the area.”
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Luke said the trend of above-normal temperatures stretches across the weekend and into next week.
“Typically, right now, our average daytime high would be somewhere around plus 15, with an overnight low of plus two or so. Certainly, we’re seeing days getting well into the 20s,” he said. “We cool down a little bit on Sunday and Monday, but we’re still forecasting 20 degrees. That’s still five degrees above normal, and it looks like we’re going to remain quite warm for the first week of fall. Maybe cool down towards the end of the week, by Thursday, Friday, but even then, it would just be cooling down to temperatures that we would expect for this time of year.”
The equinox arrives Monday, Sept. 22, with a forecast of sun and a high of 20 C. Overnight temperatures are expected to remain above the seasonal mark of 2 °C.
“It is still cooling off at night, to your point, but it is still on the warm side of normal as well,” Luke said. “The normal overnight low for now is plus two. So, looking ahead to the next few days like we’re sort of at or above that basically every night.”
Environment Canada’s forecast calls for a high of 22 C on Friday, 28 C on Saturday, 20 C on Sunday, 20 C again on Monday, 21 C on Tuesday, 24 C on Wednesday and 14 C on Thursday. Clear nights are expected Friday and Saturday, with showers developing Sunday night and a return to sun on Monday.
Luke said the longer-range outlook points to a warm end to September and the start of October.
“It looks like, overall, we’re going to be pretty warm to finish the month of September and to start October. And you know, this is kind of in line with the seasonal outlook for the fall, which kind of suggested it could be on the warmer side for much of southern Alberta.”
The Old Farmer’s Almanac echoes that call. It's 2025 fall forecast for the Prairies says the region can expect “a warmer and wetter-than-normal autumn.” September is projected to close with “lots of sunny, very warm days,” while October temperatures are forecast to average 2 °C above normal with early flurries possible in the west.
The rival Farmer’s Almanac offers a sharply different outlook. Its Fall 2025 forecast says the Prairies will see “a season of dramatic weather contrasts” trending “cooler than average,” with “early cold snaps and even wet snow by mid-October.”
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