The first of several expected rain-makers this week moved through Southern Manitoba Monday, kicking off what’s expected to be another wet week for an already drenched and soaking region.
The following precipitation totals are courtesy PembinaValleyOnline Rainwatchers, Environment Canada and the Manitoba Ag Weather Network. They are all for Monday, May 9th.
Sprague – 26.0mm (just over 1 inch)
Altona (second reading) - 25mm (1 inch)
Four miles north of Horndean - 22.5mm (9/10ths)
St. Pierre – 21.2mm
Clearwater – 20.9mm
Winkler – 20.1mm
Altona – 20mm (8/10ths)
Dominion City – 19.8mm
Pilot Mound – 19.7mm
Winnipeg (Airport) – 19.5mm\
Morris – 19.0mm
Gretna – 18.6mm
Morden – 18.5mm
Brunkild – 18.2mm
Elm Creek – 17.1mm (a little less than 7/10ths)
Steinbach – 16.5mm
Carman – 14.8mm (almost 6/10ths)
Manitou – 14.0mm
25mm = 1 inch
“Just how wet it is in the Pembina and Red River Valleys was apparent considering how little time it took for water to start ponding and filling ditches Monday,” said CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. “The water table is very high right across the region, and there is little capacity for the ground to absorb much moisture right now. Thankfully, for the most part, overland flooding concerns from run-off in late April have subsided, meaning there is some drainage capacity to take on additional run-off this week, which should mean less chance of significant overland flooding issues as long as we don’t see a huge amount of rainfall in a short period of time.”
As the low-pressure system from Monday pulls eastward, the area will see a break in the damp conditions Tuesday as gusty southwesterly winds up to 60km/h and mainly sunny skies lead to seasonal highs around 18. Slightly cooler conditions Wednesday as northeasterly winds usher in a slightly cooler air mass, with temperatures reaching 16 to 17 degrees.
“Cloud cover will start building in Wednesday morning ahead of the second low this week forecast to bring rainfall,” said Sumner. “The forecast models have shown a slight shift eastward in that system’s track, but they are still placing the bulk of the expected precipitation over the western half of the province and Southeastern Saskatchewan. As the warm front moves northward out of the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon and evening, there will be a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.”
Looking ahead to Thursday, Sumner expects shower activity throughout the day, noting rainfall totals Thursday are still in flux, but a range of 10 to 25mm is quite likely. He's also keeping an eye on the potential for severe thunderstorm activity late in the afternoon and early evening.
“All the ingredients will be there for severe storm development as this low tracks through the area,” he noted. “Ample moisture, instability and a cold front for a trigger. We may see our first Severe Thunderstorm Watches of the season, so keep an eye on the forecast, especially if you’re planning to be outdoors.”