We’re starting the week hot and humid, with highs Monday in the upper 20s, and it feeling like 30 or more thanks to high humidity.
"Moisture rich air from the Gulf of Mexico is getting pulled into Southern Manitoba today, and that’s kicking off the week with temperatures in the 25 to 28 range, with the Humidex between 31 and 33. It’s also providing the fuel for potential severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and this evening," said CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner.
"A cold front approaching may be the trigger for storm development, but there are a number of factors at play which may inhibit storm development, or decrease the risk for severe potential. Overall though, there’s a chance many regions will hear a clap of thunder or see a shower this evening and tonight."
The following rainfall totals are for Sunday, June 12th and are courtesy PembinaValleyOnline Rainwatchers, Environment Canada and the Manitoba Ag Weather Network:
Winnipeg - 26mm
Steinbach - 37.4mm (almost 1.5 inches)
Dominion City - 27.2mm (almost 1.1 inches)
Elm Creek - 23mm (around 9/10th)
Morris - 15.6mm
Gretna - 10.6mm
Altona (rural) - 9.8mm (almost 4/10th)
Carman - 7.8 (just over 3/10th)
Altona (in town) - 7mm
Manitou - 5.1mm (about 2/10th)
Winkler (south of city) - 3.9mm
Cartwright - 2.5mm
Morden - 2.3mm (just less than 1/10th)
Pilot Mound - 1.7mm
25mm = 1 inch
Looking ahead to Tuesday, according to Sumner, we’ll feel the impacts of a potent low over Alberta and Saskatchewan that could drop up to 150mm of rainfall in some regions of those provinces today and tomorrow.
"In our neck of the woods, much less is forecast, but there is some disagreement between the models on just how much we may see," he said. "10 to 15mm seems like a good bet in most areas west of the Red River, but there’s also indications we could see closer to 25mm throughout Southern Manitoba depending on how the bands of rain spin off this low when it starts to finally move eastward after being stalled over the Western Prairies for most of Monday and Tuesday."
Slightly below seasonal temperatures are expected Tuesday through Thursday, in the 21 to 23 degree range with sunny conditions returning Wednesday, but downright hot conditions are on tap for late this week and into next weekend.
"We’re looking at a quick turn around to Summer in all its force with a ridge of high pressure setting up over much of the Prairies and central U.S., allowing a very hot air-mass to settle in Friday through the weekend," explained Sumner. "Early projections are suggesting daytime highs in the mid 30s for the weekend, before cooling back to average or slightly above to start next week. The heat wave may be brief, but it's looking likely we'll see our first period of very hot Summer weather in the June 17th to 20th time frame."
Average daytime highs for this time of year are 24, with overnight lows around 12 degrees.