After an unsettled weekend for parts of Southern Manitoba, which included severe thunderstorm watches and warnings for a number of regions, CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner is pointing to a quieter week ahead.
"From Friday night through early this morning, essentially all parts of Southern Manitoba had Severe Thunderstorm Watches issued at some point," he noted. "There were even Tornado Warnings issued at one point late Friday night for parts of the Interlake as a very strong area of thunderstorms rolled through that region. Those storms were also responsible for extensive power outages. Further south, yes, we had some stronger storms develop, but they were widely scattered."
The following totals are courtesy PembinaValleyOnline Rainwatchers, Environment Canada and the Maintoba Ag Weather Network:
North of Horndean - 22.5mm (9/10th)
Gretna - 12.9mm (just over half and inch)
Carman - 7.9mm (a little more than 3/10th)
Pilot Mound - 7.3mm
Kane - 5.0mm (2/10th)
Clearwater - 3.9mm
Dominion City - 3.8mm
Elm Creek - 3.0mm
Morden - 2.4mm
Altona - 2.2mm
Winkler - 1.3mm
25mm = 1 inch
So, how are things looking for the coming days?
"A weak low pressure system moving through the province Monday morning will give us one last chance of a shower or two today for the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba," said Sumner. "The western part of the province will see a clearing sky, and more sunshine than the rest of the region, as things move out. Seasonal temperatures for today and tomorrow, between 25 and 27… and then we’re turning up the thermostat later this week."
Sumner noted, the region has had the odd day of 30, and a couple weekends ago a Sunday when temperatures pushed into the upper 30s, but the Pembina Valley has yet to see a consistent multi-day heat wave. Average daytime highs for this time of year are 27, with overnight lows around 14.
"It does look like we’ll get that typical Summer stretch of hot and sunny weather in the back half of this week," he explained. "A ridge of high pressure will build northward over the area over the next day or so, and that will allow a hot air-mass from the U.S. to move in. At this point, Thursday through the weekend is looking likely we’ll hit that 30 degree or more mark consistently. Early indications are 30 to 35 is the range we’ll be in, with the heat and humidity building throughout the week, and maxing out either Saturday or Sunday. Heat Warnings could be in the cards as we get to the weekend, with humidex values approaching 40 or more."
And what about rainfall and storms?
"Right now, I would point to Thursday evening into Friday," he said. "With all the heat and humidity we’re expecting, instability will build pretty much every afternoon during this hot stretch, but you still need a trigger to tap into that storm energy. Thursday evening there’s indications a low pressure system may cross the region, and its cold front could kick off thunderstorms, some potentially severe. There’s also a chance we could see storm development Friday afternoon into evening. I will stress, we are well in advance of both of these possibilities, and a lot could change. Also, with that strong area of high pressure in place over the region, that could negate a lot of this potential."