Even though it has been a cold month of March throughout Southern Manitoba, you do not need to search long to find a March that was colder.
Natalie Hasell, with Environment Canada, says so far this month, there have only been a couple days when the temperature rose above the freezing mark in parts of the region. By comparison, Winnipeg is still waiting for its first day above freezing this month as recorded at the two official Environment Canada weather stations in the city, one at the airport and the other at The Forks.
She says normally, about half the days in March will be above zero here. And even though daytime highs this week have been ten degrees, or more, below normal, Hasell points out that our March in 2014 was even colder.
It may be cold, but it has also been dry. According to Hasell, many areas have received less than half the precipitation they normally do over the course of the month.
Hasell says the combination of lots of sunshine this month and some strong winds do not seem to be attacking the snowdrifts as much as one might expect. She notes sun and wind can combine to cause sublimation at this time of year, which is the process of going from a solid state to vapour without passing through the liquid phase. In this case, it would mean piles of snow shrinking without any puddles to show for it. Hasell says based on snow measurements taken, it does not appear the snowpack has dropped much this month in most places, suggesting there has not been much sublimation going on.
This week is spring break for students, and for some, that means we can expect a snowstorm. Hasell says while it does not happen every year, it is certainly not unusual to have a storm during spring break week, particularly because the worst storms of the winter season often happen in late March or early April. Having said that, she notes there are two potential systems they are currently tracking.
The first one is an Alberta Clipper, or a Mackenzie Valley Low, that could hit us on Thursday, but Hasell says Environment Canada is not expecting a huge amount of precipitation with that one for southern Manitoba.
The second potential storm would hit late this weekend or early next week. However, Hasell says it is too far into the future to speak to that one with any confidence. She explains that often their models will paint an area of concern in southern Manitoba, but then as the days go by, the track of the low changes.
Meanwhile, it appears we will now see a bit of a warming trend as we get closer to the weekend. Environment Canada is calling for temperatures above the freezing mark by Sunday. However, Hasell points out that the mild weather will be short-lived. According to Hasell, after this weekend we will probably get some cooler weather again, lasting until about the second week of April.