For Kelly Saunders, Associate Political Science Professor at Brandon University, the results of Monday's federal by-election in Portage-Lisgar weren't much of a surprise.
Saunders said she fully anticipated the Conservatives would hold on to the seat, left empty by former MP, Candice Bergen. She also expected the People's Party of Canada would take some votes away from the Conservatives.
Conservative, Branden Leslie, secured about 65% of the popular vote in the by-election, a jump for the party from the 2021 general election's 52.5% garnered by Bergen. The runner-up, People's Party of Canada leader, Max Bernier, received about 17%, a decrease for the party from 21.6% in 2021.
Saunders noted however, there are some significant implications to pull out of the race.
"And that is namely the fact that while the PPC vote did go down from 22% to about 17%, they are obviously still a force to be reckoned with, which means they are going to be a thorn in the side of the Conservative party moving forward," she said. "I think the Conservatives were certainly hoping that they (the PPC) would just fade off into the distance, but that clearly is not going to be the case, so that is going to have implications for the party moving forward, not only in that riding, but indeed across the country as we look to the next general election in 2025."
In fact, Saunders believes the PPC aren't going anywhere, and says Monday's results show the party has pockets of support across the country that it will try to draw on moving forward.
"Certainly, Bernier said he wasn't going anywhere, and I anticipate that he's not going to go anywhere," she said. "Those voters, no matter how much the Conservatives might try to appeal to them, there's going to be some people that just will not vote Conservative. Whether they're protest voters, whether they're just angry at government or whether it's around specific issues related to abortion, LGBT rights, freedom issues, pandemic issues, whatever. There are pockets of support of just frustrated, unhappy voters I think that the PPC is going to be able to continue to draw on, so I really don't think they're going to go anywhere. This was a setback for them in the sense they really wanted to win this seat for sure, but I think there is a base of support out there they have been able to tap into, that they are still able to tap into, and I don't really see that changing, unfortunately. They are a disruptor in the system, and they seem to have found some basis of support they're going to continue to try to draw on and build moving forward."
As for the Conservative's win, Saunders says on the face of it, it was a huge victory for the party which had a new candidate in the race. That being said, she noted there are a couple of things to consider. The big one being Leslie had to play to the populist message during the campaign, and weigh in on social conservative issues Saunders says the party has tended to steer away from in the past.
"Several of his campaign announcements really speak to that," explained Saunders. "I mean, he came out saying, 'I support the trucker convoy. I'm pro-life'. The kind of social conservative issues certainly on matters related to reproductive rights that the party has tended to try to steer away from in the past, but they've had to sort of wade back into these kinds of questions on abortion, or on other matters, so-called family values kinds of issues," said Saunders.
While she feels that strategy paid off for the Conservatives in Portage-Lisgar this time around, Saunders believes this tactic will catch up with the party down the road.
"Family values issues might play well in Portage-Lisgar in a by-election, but it's not going to play the same way to suburban voters in the Greater Toronto area, or in Montreal, where the Conservatives have to pick up votes down the road if they want to form a majority government across the country. So, the Conservatives, I think, paid a high price in some ways, because, of course the Liberals are going be using a lot of that messaging against them to paint them as right-wing kind of extremists in the next general election. So, they won the seat and that's great. They increased their vote. But as I said, I think it's going to catch up to them a little bit."