The last two months have produced record breaking heat in parts of Southern Manitoba, including the Pembina Valley.
David Phillips with Environment Canada says we just tied a record for the hottest May and June collectively. The mean temperature for those two months (taking into account daytime highs and lows for each day) was 19.05 degrees, which is several degrees warmer than normal. The last time it was this warm, collectively, in May and June was 1988 when it was slightly warmer than was just recorded over the past two months.
Phillips says the months of May and June were quite a contrast from March and April. He says those previous two months were cold, the ground was still frozen, southern Manitobans were still dealing with snow and farmers were itching to get on the land. But, he says we then jumped from winter straight to summer.
"You could have slept through spring this year," jokes Phillips. "It was probably two hours long."
According to Environment Canada, the warmest day so far in 2023 was on June 20th, when the Morden/Winkler/Altona area reached 37.1 degrees. Phillips says that was the temperature in the shade, noting it could have been eight degrees hotter in the direct sun that day. He says interestingly, that was still in Spring. Phillips says what was also interesting is that the overnight temperature on June 20th was 18.9 degrees.
"If people remember it, they will remember it was the longest day, the hottest day and the hottest night," says Phillips.
To further put things into perspective, Phillips says the Pembina Valley region has already had 17 days of 30 degrees or warmer. He says normally, in a typical year, we will have 16.
"So you've already had your full quota," adds Phillips.
But, for those who like heat, Phillips says what we have seen so far to start the summer is only a sign of things to come. He notes their models are showing that July will be even hotter than June, even if this week's forecast would suggest the opposite.
"For people who like their summers warm, I think they will have really felt they had struck gold with this particular summer," he adds.
Phillips explains that Environment Canada has weather maps which show the flavour of a season. This summer is shaded red over Steinbach, which does not only mean that it will be warmer than normal, but the colour red is also an indication of how confident meteorologists are in their forecast.
"Most of Manitoba is coming out to be that red colour," says Phillips. "Which means that the model seems to suggest without really any doubt that the summer ahead, the July and August are going to be a repeat of what June was, that is warmer than normal."
Meanwhile, in terms of precipitation, Phillips says rain is difficult to forecast a season at a time. He notes June was dry in our area and their models are showing that the rest of summer will be drier than normal.
"Clearly warmer than normal, and no wonder there was stress, because at the same time precipitation totals in your area were below normal," noted Phillips while noting parts of the region have received only 60% of the precipitation they normally would to this point in the season. "It really has been challenging for farmers working and trying to bring in a crop."
Phillips says their models are also suggesting drier than normal conditions for July and August.
- With files from Candace Derksen -