Warmer than average sea surface temperatures off the South American coasts could significantly affect our weather this fall and winter.
Also known as El Nino, the abnormal temperatures of such large bodies of water can offset what the jet stream does. The jet stream is the divide between warmer and colder air that generally runs over western North America.
Environment Canada meteorologist Terri Lang said they are expecting a particularly strong El Nino this year.
“(It) was forecasted to develop in the fall, but the conditions have already switched over from neutral to El Nino conditions, so it’s starting a little bit earlier than forecast,” she explained.
The position of the jet stream generally determines what kind of weather we will experience. Low-pressure systems that bring rain, thunderstorms, snow and blizzards travel along the jet stream.
Lang said it's hard to pinpoint exactly when we will begin to feel the effects of El Nino.
“July, August, September and through the fall are forecast to be warmer than average and potentially drier than average. It’s hard to know whether we can attribute that to the developing El Nino or exactly when it will kick in because it’s more of a progression thing than a start time,” she said.
Meteorologists track El Nino, sea temperatures above average, La Nina or temperatures below average and neutral or La Nada which means sea temperatures are on average.
Usually, we will see a pattern where if we experience El Nino, the following year will be neutral and then La Nina. However, La Ninas have developed for the past three years.
“It’s generally more predictable than what we’ve seen in the past few years,” Lang said.