A Snowfall Warning remains in effect for much of Southern Manitoba from the Saskatchewan border to the Red River. Over the next 24 hours, totals of 10 to 20 cm are expected, with areas closest to the American border seeing the highest amounts, keeping in mind there will be two main waves of snow.
"It’s definitely going to look like winter by the time Thursday morning rolls around, whether you’re part of the Warning or not," said CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner as he noted the Southeastern corner of the province, east of Highway 75, is not currently part of the Warning. "That region can still expect significant snowfall over the next 24 to 36 hours. The reason it's not part of the Snowfall Warning is due to the amount of snow expected and the timeframe it's expected to arrive in, possibly, not quite reaching the criteria necessary to issue one, but it will be so close we’re kind of splitting heirs. Environment Canada's Snowfall Warning criteria is 10cms of snow within 12 hours or less, and the southeast is currently expected to be just shy of that."
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And whether we like it or not, right across Southern Manitoba, we'll be shoveling, snow blowing and returning to winter driving conditions over the next couple days as we see two rounds of snowfall.
"The first wave begins Wednesday morning in the southwest, building west to east throughout the day," noted Sumner. "Early to mid-afternoon is when the snow is expected to arrive in the Red River Valley, with mid to late afternoon the current timeline for the Southeast. Snowfall rates pick up across the region tonight and overnight, before tapering off Thursday for much of the day. Flurries or light snow is expected in most areas throughout the day tomorrow, with the second wave of snowfall arriving Thursday night and lasting overnight into Friday morning. That is when a further 5 to 10cms is expected to drop across most of Southern Manitoba."
Sumner noted how much of the first round of snow sticks around and accumulates remains to be seen due to the ground still being quite warm.
"With that said, with temperatures expected to be hovering around freezing throughout this early season storm, there will be opportunity for the snow to pile up, eventually, and because this system is so moisture laden, and temperatures will remain around zero, it will be the heavy, wet and sticky kind."
Northerly winds are forecast to range between 20 and 40km/h from tonight through Friday morning, so there will be some blowing and drifting snow.
"I don’t foresee whiteout conditions, but reduced visibility will definitely be in the mix throughout all of this," Sumner said."
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And when are we expecting this all to wrap up?
"Starting in the southwest, the second round of snow will taper off Friday morning, and then throughout the day as you move eastward through the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba," he explained. "Surface high pressure builds behind this system, meaning a return to sunny conditions for the weekend, but also the arrival of a cold, Arctic airmass, that will push daytime highs Saturday through Monday more than 10 degrees below average for the end of October, dipping between -3 and -5 daytime, with overnight lows in the -10 to -12 range."
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