With the ongoing warmer than average weather, you have to wonder if it will be a white Christmas? And with daytime highs later this week expected to be well above freezing, it will definitely be melting.
"Considering we’ve already seen some melting since the snowfall we had a couple weeks ago, what kind of white Christmas can we expect," asked CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "First the definition, according to Environment Canada, a White Christmas must have at least 2cm of snow on the ground on Christmas morning at 7am. Based on that, I expect most of Southern Manitoba will have a White Christmas, but just barely. As you get into rural areas, with the melting to come, the landscape outside many communities will be looking pretty brown."
Environment Canada has analyzed decades of data, and calculated the probability of having a white, snow covered Christmas Day.
"Based on that data, which took into account Christmases 1955 through 2021, most locations in Southern Manitoba have a 90%, or higher, probability of a white Christmas as per the definition, specifically, Brandon at 94% and Winnipeg at 99%," noted Sumner. "With that said, over the last 25 years only, we've seen a slight decrease in that probability by a few percentage points."
Sumner noted, the weather trends are on our side, but the reality is we are looking at very warm, melting temperatures, with lots of sunshine, later this week, exactly what we don’t want to see if we’re hoping for that picture perfect Christmas day. Daytime highs Friday and Saturday are currently forecast to be between +4 and +6, underneath a sunny sky... the perfect scenario for significant melting.
Average daytime highs at this point in December are around -10.
So, even if there is only a slight chance of a Green or Brown Christmases, is there any info on those, too?
"There is, and again, Environment Canada has kept track of those, and they are pretty rare" he said. "In the 67 years analyzed, there were only four recorded in Brandon between 1955 and 2021. In Winnipeg there was only one."
So where does this leave us with what to expect for this year?
"At this point, I think especially in regions near the U.S. border, there is a good chance we’re going to see a brown/white split on many yards, with the landscape outside of town looking more brown than white," offered Sumner. "Overall, compared to what we’d call a 'traditional' Southern Manitoba Christmas, it will look much browner this year."
And is there any chance of a last minute blizzard dumping a blanket of snow just in time for Christmas day?
"At this point, it's not looking like we'll be facing any major winter storms during the Christmas period," he explained. "Due to a couple of minor disturbances showing up in the forecast models, we could see some flurries Christmas eve and Christmas day, but we're not expecting accumulating snowfall at this point."
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