Residents of the Pembina Valley felt it, and now a local meteorologist is confirming it. This past December was one of the warmest on record, and the second warmest in certain areas, but by just a hair.
According to Weatherlogics the average temperature last month in Gretna was -4.7 Celsius, just short of the record of -4.6 C set in 1997. In Morden, the average temperature in December was -4.1 C, also just shy of the record -4.0 C set in 1939.
Scott Kehler says there are a few other statistics that stand out from last month. He notes there was only one day when the temperature dropped below -20 degrees. Normally in southern Manitoba, there will be about 12 of those days in December.
Kehler says though it was not the driest December ever recorded, there is certainly a lot less snow on the ground than what is normal for this time of the year. He says that is due in large part to our mild weather and the fact that a lot of the snow that fell has already melted.
According to Kehler, the mild month of December seems to have been driven by El Nino. In fact, Kehler says the entire country experienced a warmer-than-normal month of December.
"The peak of that warmth was actually pretty much centred over Manitoba," he adds.
Kehler says even Churchill broke a record for the warmest month of December, averaging about nine degrees warmer than normal.
"This warm weather was pretty much a national thing and across the northern United States as well," he adds.
Kehler suggests the milder-than-normal weather will likely stick around for the first week of January. Following that, he says we should trend more towards normal temperatures for this time of year.
"Then probably about 10 days to two weeks into the month, so more toward mid-January, that appears to be the chance we might see our first really big Arctic blast," warns Kehler.
And, if you had not already figured it out, that Arctic blast would likely be driven by the Polar Vortex. Kehler explains that the Polar Vortex is a large area of low pressure with extremely cold conditions that tend to wobble around the North Pole. He says the Polar Vortex is always present.
"For most of this winter, the Polar Vortex has been nowhere to be found in North America, it's been in other parts of the world though," says Kehler. "And so, by mid-January, it looks like some, or all of the Polar Vortex will begin to wobble back toward North America and that will bring these much colder temperatures."
Meanwhile, Kehler says whenever we see colder patterns in winter, we tend to get more snow. Having said that, he notes there are no big storms on the horizon that he is keeping an eye on. Kehler says as things get colder, we will likely see more Alberta Clippers or potentially Colorado Lows.
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