Showers and thunderstorms crossed the Pembina and Red River Valleys late Saturday afternoon and evening, with one Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for the Carman area.
“Severe Thunderstorm Watches had been in place from late Saturday afternoon, and it was only this one storm cell which reached severe criteria,” explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. “The remainder of the system remained below severe limits, but those areas that did see a thunderstorm, or two, from the two waves of showers had considerably more rainfall.”
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The following totals are for Saturday, June 22nd and are courtesy PembinaValleyOnline Rainwatchers, Environment Canada and the Manitoba Ag Weather Network:
Carman – 19.7mm (almost 8/10)
Jordan – 12.7mm (about 1/2 inch)
Reinland – 9.8mm (almost 4/10)
Elm Creek – 8.5mm
Rosenfeld – 7.62mm (3/10)
Morris – 7.3mm
Plum Coulee – 6.35mm
Manitou – 5.8mm
Steinbach – 5.3mm
Dominion City – 5.1mm (2/10)
Gretna – 4.1mm
Kane – 3.9mm
Altona – 3.5mm
Winkler – 2.5mm (1/10)
Emerson – 1.6mm
Clearwater – 0.7mm
25mm = 1 inch
The ongoing unsettled and wetter than average pattern is expected to continue this week, with several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Sumner points to Monday afternoon and evening as the next potential for severe weather.
“Monday’s severe threat will begin in the early morning hours over Western Manitoba, as convection from late Sunday evening spills over the border from Saskatchewan,” he said. “Those storms may be at severe limits as they enter the province, but will weaken as they progress south and eastward. With that said, because warm and moist air is expected to continue being fed into these storms during the pre-dawn hours, some may be quite strong."
Meanwhile, according to Sumner, a complex set of factors will be at play Monday afternoon and evening, and that could lead to the redevelopment of severe weather off this same system from the Red River Valley east to the Ontario border.
"There are conditions working for and against the development of storms on Monday, so we will have to wait and see what scenario of the several plays out," he said. "Moisture, instability and a trigger from the passage of the low over the area will work in favour of storm development, but a strong atmospheric cap over the area will prevent storm initiation initially. Also working against storm development will be how long any Monday morning showers or thunderstorms last, preventing daytime heating."