The province has released its first-quarter report for 2024-2025, showing Saskatchewan's finances remain stable.
A $354 million deficit is projected for the first quarter, an increase of $80.6 million from the initial budget projection of $273.2 million.
"At first quarter, we continue to have a strong fiscal picture, including a decline in net debt and improvements in several key economic indicators," Deputy Premier and Finance Minister Donna Harpauer said. "Our government will continue to carefully manage spending while maintaining our commitment to make record investments in priority programs and services to ensure strong and vibrant communities."
A $91.9 million increase in revenue is forecast, driven by a $124.7 million boost from improvements in fees, investment income, and miscellaneous income. Non-renewable resource revenue is expected to decrease by $14 million due to changes in commodity pricing. Federal transfers are also forecasted to decrease by $13.9 million as a result of the federal government’s decision to reduce labour training funding in the province by $17.1 million compared to the budget.
Expenses are projected to rise by $172.5 million above the budget. This includes an estimated $133.8 million in general government expenses for compensation costs related to the recently ratified collective bargaining agreement with the Saskatchewan Government and General Employees’ Union.
Additionally, financing charges are expected to increase by $38.7 million due to an earlier issuance timeline for anticipated debt to take advantage of favourable market conditions. This is offset by the increase in investment income revenue.
Total debt at the end of the first quarter is estimated at $35.2 billion, an increase of $401 million compared to the budget. Taxpayer-supported debt remains unchanged from the budget. However, self-supported debt increased by $404.3 million due to SaskPower borrowing as a result of a lower forecasted net income and accelerated clean electricity capital funding requirements.
Some areas showed promise in the first half of the year, with all-time record highs in the labour market.
Saskatchewan boasted the second-fastest-growing economy in the country in 2023, with real GDP growth at 1.6 per cent, according to the most recent average private-sector forecast. Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2024, the third-highest among the provinces, and a one per cent increase compared to the projected budget.
The province’s net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 13.4 per cent as of March 23, 2025, an improvement from budget projections, remaining the second-best among the provinces. This improvement is driven by a decrease in the value of opening net debt due to an operating surplus from the previous year.