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Exciting celestial events are on the horizon as we experience a surge in solar activity. According to experts from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this increase may lead to more breathtaking auroras gracing our skies.
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In a teleconference last week, experts explained that this heightened solar activity sparked the most recent geomagnetic storm earlier this month.
Dr. Lisa Upton, Co-chair of the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel and lead scientist at Southwest Research Institute, explained that the solar cycle, which fluctuates approximately every 11 years, is entering its maximum phase. This cycle began in December 2019 and has shown increasing activity.
"Even though we're currently in the maximum phase, we will not be able to determine the peak of this solar cycle for several months," Upton said. "We need to track a consistent decline in solar activity first."
Dr. Upton also clarified that space weather events are complex and depend on the interaction of the Sun's magnetic field during strong energy releases directed toward Earth. These events can cause significant geomagnetic storms that lead to auroras and disruptions in infrastructure. While it is uncertain whether future storms will be larger than those already experienced, she added that we can expect to see auroras appearing at lower latitudes, similar to recent occurrences.
"During the declining phase, we will probably still see some very large geomagnetic storms... we can expect to see aurora dipping down to the lower latitudes," she noted.
Dr. Kelly Couric, Program Scientist for NASA's Heliophysics Division, elaborated on the significance of sunspots—cooler areas on the Sun caused by magnetic fields.
"Sunspots are the visible component of the active regions... sources of the solar eruption," Dr. Couric noted.
She also mentioned the potential impacts of solar storms on Earth, including radio blackouts and beautiful auroras. "A solar storm can create a major disturbance in the Earth's magnetic field... that can produce effects such as radio blackouts, power outages, and beautiful auroras."
Dr. Elsayed Talaat, the Office of Space Weather Observations Director, shared insights on the ongoing solar maximum, emphasizing the increased likelihood of significant solar weather events. Earlier this year, a series of large solar flares and coronal mass ejections resulted in one of the most powerful solar storms in two decades.
"We expect to see more sunspots, and therefore, there's a higher chance of high-impact space weather occurring on any given day," he said.
Dr. Talaat also discussed historical data on geomagnetic storms, highlighting that G5 storms are rare, with the last occurrence before May being in October 2003. While G4 storms are more common, this cycle has seen only a handful, whereas several dozen are typical for a solar cycle.
"There’s going to be more geomagnetic storms at that G4 level... typically with G4 storms, we will see the aurora extend into Northern California."
As we move further into this solar cycle, skywatchers can look forward to the potential of stunning auroras lighting up the night sky.
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