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Another weather record has fallen in southern Manitoba. In a season that has seen temperature records broken, Meteorologist Scott Kehler with Weatherlogics says our area has now gone the longest period without snow.
Kehler says it last snowed in April, and because we have yet to see a snowflake this fall, that means the last snowfall was 210 days ago.
"Which is a record by far," says Kehler.
This breaks the previous record of 201 days set in 1998. Kehler says this is very unusual because normally October will see about five centimetres of snow. He adds we also usually see some snow in the first half of November.
According to Kehler, the streak might soon end. If not this weekend, then around mid-next week. Weather models are showing snow to fall on parts of southern Manitoba on Saturday, but Kehler says most of the accumulations are expected in western parts of the province. Kehler says the precipitation will likely fall as rain here, though as the system departs, those raindrops could turn to flurries.
"This system is looking like a fairly weak one," he explains. "So, I'm not expecting any heavy rain."
He says rainfall totals will probably not exceed five millimetres.
Then as that system leaves the region, the air is expected to warm again with highs nearing double digits for both Sunday and Monday. However, Kehler says it looks like after that, our stretch of unseasonably mild weather will finally end.
"As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday, there are signs of a pretty strong low-pressure system moving up out of the U.S.," warns Kehler.
He says right now there is some uncertainty how this system will track. He notes if it ends up tracking further to the west then there is a good chance that it will bring heavy snow to parts of Saskatchewan and western Manitoba, though more rain in the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba.
However, if the system tracks further to the east, through Minnesota and Ontario, Kehler says it could spread snow across all of southern Manitoba, possibly marking the first significant snowfall of the season.
"That's what I'm keeping an eye on right now, the uncertainty is in the track," he says. "But either way it does look like a good chance of more precipitation coming for the southeast for Tuesday, Wednesday timeframe."
Kehler says predicting how much snow could fall with that system depends on where the system tracks and how strong it gets. He says some models are suggesting that a worst-case scenario could bring more than 20 centimetres of snow to the most western side of the system. He stresses though, that is, if the system follows the ideal track to maximize snow.
"So, I'm not saying that's going to happen yet but that's a possibility," he says. "But on the other hand, it could end up being more of a rain event if it does follow a different track."
Either way, Kehler says the system set to arrive mid-next week should signal a change in the seasons for southern Manitoba. He explains that when you get a really strong low-pressure system, it usually means that the system has a very large temperature difference across it. Kehler says the large difference in temperature is what helps drive the intensity of the storm. He notes that means that as the eastern side of the storm is approaching, it will be fairly mild, but then as the storm departs, it will pull down a lot of really cold air from the north, which will trigger the pattern change.
"So, the latter part of next week likely to be colder," he says. "We're not talking about mid-winter cold here we're just in many ways talking about more a return to normal mid-November weather. But it will feel like quite a big change given how mild the month has started."
The normal high for this time of year is -1, while the normal low is -9.