September, October and the first half of November have seen above average temperatures in our region but that is all about to change over the next couple of days.
A sweeping winter storm is delivering a mix of rain, freezing rain, snow, and gusty winds across Southern Manitoba, prompting Winter Storm Warnings and Special Weather Statements throughout the region. Meteorologists and weather forecasters are cautioning residents to brace for rapidly changing conditions as the first major winter weather event of the season unfolds.
"From freezing rain to strong winds and blowing snow, nearly every area south of the Trans-Canada Highway will experience a mix of challenging conditions from Tuesday morning through Wednesday night," said Chris Sumner, a CMOS-accredited weathercaster. He added that after a prolonged stretch of unseasonably warm and dry weather, the storm marks a decisive shift toward winter.
Warnings and Statements Issued
Environment Canada has issued Winter Storm Warnings for western and southwestern Manitoba, extending east to the Pilot Mound and Manitou areas. Meanwhile, Special Weather Statements cover much of the Central Plains, Pembina Valley and the Red River Valley regions.
"The criteria for issuing warnings and statements depend on forecasted impacts, and there remains uncertainty about where the dividing line between snow and rain will settle," Sumner explained. "This line is critical, it will determine how much snow versus rain each area receives and will significantly impact total snowfall accumulations."
A Complex Forecast - click here
Current projections place the rain-snow boundary along the western Red River Valley near the Manitoba Escarpment. Area's west of this line are expected to see snow earlier and in greater amounts, while areas to the east will experience heavier rainfall before a transition to snow Tuesday night.
In the Portage area, up to 25 millimeters of rain is forecast for Tuesday, transitioning to wet snow in the afternoon and then to heavier snow overnight. Total snowfall is expected to range from 5 to 15 centimeters by Wednesday night, with the highest accumulations likely southwest of Portage.
"As colder air wraps into the system from the west, snowfall intensity will increase, particularly Tuesday night into Wednesday," Sumner said. "With temperatures near freezing, small variations in the storm’s trajectory could significantly alter local snowfall amounts."
Wind and Visibility Concerns
Strong northwesterly winds will accompany the storm, with gusts reaching up to 70 km/h in western Manitoba and 50 to 60 km/h in the Central Plains. These winds are expected to coincide with snowfall, creating periods of blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility from Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.
road reports and cancellations here
Colder Days Ahead
The storm will begin to taper off Wednesday night, with conditions improving west to east into Thursday morning. However, the system’s aftermath will bring an influx of much colder air. Daytime highs from Thursday through the weekend are forecast to range between -4°C and -10°C, well below the seasonal average of -2°C for mid-November.
"This storm marks a dramatic end to the mild weather we've enjoyed so far this season," Sumner noted. "Residents should prepare for icy conditions, reduced visibility, and a sharp drop in temperatures in the days ahead."
As the first widespread storm of the season, officials urge caution on roads and remind residents to monitor updated forecasts as conditions evolve.