Updated Saturday, December 7th at 3:55 p.m. - Ahead of the arrival of a potent low pressure system that's currently travelling across the Southern Prairies, Environment Canada has issued weather warnings of various types across all of Southern Manitoba.
For the Pembina Valley and Red River Valley west of the river:
Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for these areas including Pilot Mound, Manitou, Morden, Winkler, Altona, Gretna and Morris with 10 to 20cms of snowfall possible.
"Mixed precipitation beginning Saturday overnight, changing to widespread snow Sunday morning," noted the Warning. "This system will produce heavy snowfall rates of as much as 2 cm per hour. The extent of freezing rain will be heavily impacted by local temperature regimes, with temperatures hovering near the freezing mark across much of the region by evening."
Winter storm warnings are issued when a significant snowfall (snowfall warning criteria amounts) combined with other cold weather precipitation types such as: freezing rain, strong winds, blowing snow and/or extreme cold.
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Snowfall Warnings are now in effect for all of Southeastern Manitoba (east of Red River):
"Although mild temperatures may initially limit blowing snow, moderate snowfall rates combined with strong winds will create poor visibilities in blowing and falling snow on Sunday night into Monday morning," explained the Warning. "The snow will taper off overnight Sunday. Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow."
Snowfall Warnings are issued when 10 cm or more of snow falls within 12 hours or less.
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You can read our initial story from Saturday morning, below.
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A return to spring-like weather is in the forecast for the weekend, but so is a messy mix of snow, rain and freezing rain... just like we could see on any given Spring day.
According to CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner, the potentially sloppy situation will come courtesy of a low pressure system coming off the Pacific, over the Rockies and then crossing the southern Prairies Saturday night through at least Monday morning.
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“A beautiful Saturday featuring a mix of sun and cloud and highs between +2 and +4, will quickly be replaced by a dramatic shift in conditions overnight Saturday, with impacts lasting, well into Monday,” he explained. “This system will bring a combination of precipitation to most regions of Southern Manitoba, and which areas receive what, whether that be rain, freezing rain, ice pellets or snow, will be completely dependent on how this low actually tracks.”
Averages for this time of year are -7 daytime and -16 overnight.
“This system is quite moisture packed, and right now the forecast models are indicating the heaviest snowfall will be well north of the Trans Canada highway in a line from Dauphin through the Interlake, east of Lake Winnipeg and then into Northwestern Ontario,” Sumner said. “But to be clear, we will all see impacts from this system, and it will be a combination of precipitation types.”
At this point, from the Red River west to the Saskatchewan border, Sumner feels 5-10cms of snow is likely, generally speaking, along with several millimeters of rain. He stressed, this is based on the current track the system is expected to take, with the higher end of the projected range for the Red River Valley, and the potential for even high totals in Southeastern Manitoba.
“It’s important to keep in mind, even slight changes in how the system moves through the province along the International border, will have potentially significant impacts on how the precipitation totals actually play out for areas south of the Number 1,” he commented.
Timeline and precipitation type expected
As temperatures cool Saturday night and overnight, and the low pressure system arrives, the precipitation is expected to begin as either freezing rain or snow. He added that is expected to last until late Sunday morning to mid-day. With warm air being pulled into the region by the counter-clockwise flow around the low, daytime highs will again warm to above freezing, back to the +2 to +4 range once again.
Being prepared for less than ideal driving conditions Sunday morning and beyond would be a good idea, suggested Sumner.
“We can expect to see a changeover from the snow to rain by Sunday afternoon, with showers or rain continuing into the evening, until temperatures cool again,” he said. “As the system continues to move eastward, much cooler air will be flowing in on the back side of it, meaning gusty northerly to northwesterly winds between 50 km/h and 60 km/h developing overnight Sunday, and lasting throughout much of Monday, especially in the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba.”
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With cooler air in place, and highs between -6 and -9, light snowfall will be the precipitation of the day on Monday, potentially combining with those gusty winds to make for a blustery one, with possible travel impacts due to reduced visibility as well as slippery and snowy highway conditions.
“Impacts from this system are expected to diminish by Monday afternoon, with conditions expected to improve further Monday night,” he added.
Looking ahead to next week, Sumner noted upper level troughing will develop over the Prairies, and that means Arctic air descending southward, and possibly leading to the coolest temperatures of the season, so far, in the Tuesday night through Thursday morning timeframe.