A return to spring-like weather is in the forecast for the weekend, but so is a messy mix of snow, rain and freezing rain... just like we could see on any given Spring day.
According to CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner, the potentially sloppy situation will come courtesy of a low pressure system coming off the Pacific, over the Rockies and then crossing the southern Prairies Saturday night through at least Monday morning.
For your latest forecast details, click here
“A beautiful Saturday featuring a mix of sun and cloud and highs between +2 and +4, will quickly be replaced by a dramatic shift in conditions overnight Saturday, with impacts lasting, well into Monday,” he explained. “This system will bring a combination of precipitation to most regions of Southern Manitoba, and which areas receive what, whether that be rain, freezing rain, ice pellets or snow, will be completely dependent on how this low actually tracks.”
Averages for this time of year are -7 daytime and -16 overnight.
“This system is quite moisture packed, and right now the forecast models are indicating the heaviest snowfall will be well north of the Trans Canada highway in a line from Dauphin through the Interlake, east of Lake Winnipeg and then into Northwestern Ontario,” Sumner said. “But to be clear, we will all see impacts from this system, and it will be a combination of precipitation types.”
At this point, from the Red River west to the Saskatchewan border, Sumner feels 5-10cms of snow is likely, generally speaking, along with several millimeters of rain. He stressed, this is based on the current track the system is expected to take, with the higher end of the projected range for the Red River Valley, and the potential for even high totals in Southeastern Manitoba.
“It’s important to keep in mind, even slight changes in how the system moves through the province along the International border, will have potentially significant impacts on how the precipitation totals actually play out for areas south of the Number 1,” he commented.
Timeline and precipitation type expected
As temperatures cool Saturday night and overnight, and the low pressure system arrives, the precipitation is expected to begin as either freezing rain or snow. He added that is expected to last until late Sunday morning to mid-day. With warm air being pulled into the region by the counter-clockwise flow around the low, daytime highs will again warm to above freezing, back to the +2 to +4 range once again.
Being prepared for less than ideal driving conditions Sunday morning and beyond would be a good idea, suggested Sumner.
“We can expect to see a changeover from the snow to rain by Sunday afternoon, with showers or rain continuing into the evening, until temperatures cool again,” he said. “As the system continues to move eastward, much cooler air will be flowing in on the back side of it, meaning gusty northerly to northwesterly winds between 50 km/h and 60 km/h developing overnight Sunday, and lasting throughout much of Monday, especially in the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba.”
For the latest Road Report and Cancellation information, click here
With cooler air in place, and highs between -6 and -9, light snowfall will be the precipitation of the day on Monday, potentially combining with those gusty winds to make for a blustery one, with possible travel impacts due to reduced visibility as well as slippery and snowy highway conditions.
“Impacts from this system are expected to diminish by Monday afternoon, with conditions expected to improve further Monday night,” he added.
Looking ahead to next week, Sumner noted upper level troughing will develop over the Prairies, and that means Arctic air descending southward, and possibly leading to the coolest temperatures of the season, so far, in the Tuesday night through Thursday morning timeframe.