A strong, moisture filled low pressure system currently centred over Saskatchewan is still on track to bring significant snowfall to much of Southern Manitoba Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.
A Snowfall Warning remains in effect for the Pembina and Red River Valleys (including Morden, Carman, Winkler, Altona, Emerson and Morris areas), as well as all of Southeastern Manitoba. Environment Canada continues to forecast a general 10 to 20cms by the time the precipitation wraps up some time Monday. Snowfall Warnings are issued when 10 cm or more of snow falls within 12 hours or less.
A Freezing Rain Warning is in effect for the Pilot Mound and Manitou area.
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“This system began impacting Southwestern Manitoba in the very early morning hours of Sunday, with freezing rain leading to icy conditions south of the Trans Canada highway,” noted CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. “It’s now looking like areas further east, including the Pembina and Red River Valleys, will see mostly snow from this low, along side a risk of freezing rain Sunday morning.”
Sumner explained once the snow starts Sunday morning, we can expect it to continue through the day, into the evening and overnight into Monday. He added, based on the current track of the low, accumulations will increase from west to east for areas near the U.S. border, with totals on the higher end of the 10-20cm range expected to remain east of the Red River.
“The heaviest snowfall will be during the day Sunday, and then tapering off as we get to the evening hours,” he added. “It appears snowfall rates with this low pressure system will be substantial, in the 1 to 2cms per hour range, meaning it will not take long for the heavy, wet snow to start piling up.”
Mostly snow now expected
The bulk of the snow will fall from Sunday morning through late Sunday night. Lingering flurries and light snow are expected to continue into Monday afternoon. Daytime highs Sunday will be around +2, well above the average high for the time of year which is -7.
According to Environment Canada, although mild temperatures may initially limit blowing snow, moderate snowfall rates combined with strong winds will create poor visibility in blowing and falling snow on Sunday night into Monday morning.
“As the system pushes eastward, strong northerly to northwesterly winds will develop on the back side of the low,” said Sumner. “We’re expecting the winds to pick Sunday night, with gusts up to 50 km/h. Stronger gusts up to 60 km/h are possible Monday morning and for much of the day.”
Impacts from the system will diminish from west to east throughout the day Monday, and by Monday night the wind will start to back off, but remain breezy.
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Looking ahead in the week, according to Sumner, upper level troughing arrives Tuesday, with surface high pressure helping open the freezer door, so Arctic air can descend southward to our region.
“Behind this low, much colder air will flood into the area beginning with slightly cooler than average temperatures Tuesday,” he said. “Very cold, Arctic air will be moving into the area throughout the day Tuesday, so by Tuesday night lows could reach the mid 20s, with daytime highs not recovering much Wednesday or Thursday, perhaps only a couple of degrees. The well below average temperatures will last until Friday when we’re expecting somewhat of a warm up to begin.”