"We had record prices in 2024,” says Manitoba Livestock Marketing Association Executive Administrator, Rick Wright. "For the cow/calf breeders in Manitoba, across Western Canada, it's the best year we've ever had."
“I've been in the business 45 years, and we've never seen cattle prices where they were this fall. And the good news is that looking ahead into 2025, it looks like these prices have the potential to carry on for next year and possibly the year after,” he says.
“So, I think as cow-calf operators who have been in the business for a long time, they're finally being rewarded for their hard work and as we put it on our side of the business, they're in the driver's seat right now,” says Wright. “We’ve got a short supply and all the indicators and fundamentals in the formulas look like we've got strong prices ahead.”
Noting how cattle prices and grain prices work together like a tip-scale, when one goes high the other goes low, Wright says over the past year, beef prices remained high, however grain prices were lower than what we’ve seen for years which was a favorable combination for cattle producers.
To what’s going to happen in the future he says there are 5 fundamentals that cattle producers are watching very closely.
"One is the supply of cattle that are out there," he explains, “and the weather conditions, especially drought. There's a lot of drought in the US right now and in some areas of Canada, although we’re not bad as we were. One of the big factors is going to be the value of the Canadian dollar. That’s certainly going to have a major impact on all the agriculture commodities moving forward.”
The Canadian dollar dipped below $0.70 US on Tuesday, December 17th. It was the first time since the onset of COVID-19 in March 2020, according to Bloomberg data.
“On the beef side, "Wright continues, "we're looking at consumer demand and resistance in our export markets, which are critical for us in Canada. And the last one we're going to watch in the next year are going to be the government policies.”
President-elect Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the United States' 47th president on Monday, January 20. With this new U.S. administration coming and an election coming up in Canada with a possible change there, Wright says the government policies, such as the proposed tariffs in the US at 25%, have a big impact on what's going to be happening in the agricultural market, especially the cattle and grain side.
"Those are the things that I'm going to watch as a market analyst very closely for the next year when I make decisions and we're giving out some consulting advice to our customers," he adds. "So, we're going to watch all this really close over the next 12 months and that will help us formulate plans for moving forward in the future."