They heat our homes, fuel our economy, and get us where we need to go, petroleum products, and more specifically, gasoline and diesel are critical for most aspects of modern life. When prices change so do our lives, and with trade tensions rising, looming carbon tax increases, and producers eying the spring season, Saskatchewanians are likely to feel it in their wallets.
Gas prices here in Estevan have remained unchanged from a week ago, with the average price at the pump still about $146.9.
Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, shared what the province can expect in 2025, and how things stacked up in the year prior.
“Provincially, the price is about a penny lower, about $150.7 this morning. That is up half a penny from a week ago and up about $0.06 from a month ago.”
He said that the relatively stable prices in the province could be in jeopardy as federal and international factors shake up the petroleum industry.
“A lot of the reason for the recent rise that we've seen in the last few weeks has been the price of oil, which last week touched its highest level since July. Some of that happening because of actions taken by the outgoing U.S. presidential administration. With the Biden administration ramping up sanctions on countries like Russia and Iran, making it more difficult for them to ship crude oil, thus imperiling the flow of global crude oil.” explained De Haan.
“Now we have the potential of looming tariffs from the Trump administration, and while that is mostly a concern for Americans south of the border, it could affect some Canadians.”
He noted that alongside the potential economic pressures from abroad, changes in season, driving habits, and of course the impending carbon tax impact will also have an impact on the pocketbooks of Canadians.
“Gas prices may hold somewhat steady, although we are just a few weeks away from our seasonal rise in prices that usually start in late winter.” said De Haan.
“Year in, year out, the continued rise in the carbon tax is something that we'll expect to permanently change the relationship between the price of oil and the price at the pump, whether it be for gasoline or diesel and once it is implemented here just a little over two months from now, it will further disconnect the price you're paying at the pump to the price of oil.”
The spring surge will likely have the biggest effect on prices going forward, explained De Haan, as the current situation regarding tariffs is still just speculation at this point.
“Refineries begin their maintenance before the summer driving season, as we start to make the transition to cleaner blends of gasoline ahead of the summer. In addition, as temperatures warm up in March, Canadians do start to see an increase in demand.”
“All of those factors that usually lead gas prices to rise anywhere from 15 to 30 cents a litre between February and April or May, when prices traditionally plateau. No matter what, no matter what happens, we're looking at a considerable increase in the next couple of months for the province here.”
That 15 to 30 cents per litre increase will be joined with a further $15 per tonne increase in the carbon tax this spring, and according to De Haan, that will put continued pressure on the bottom line for Saskatchewanians.
“Buckle up, I think prices in Saskatchewan could get close to, potentially, dollar 70 a liter, maybe even higher than that as we get closer to summer.”
De Haan predicts that diesel prices will find themselves further disconnected from those seen for gasoline as the seasons begin to change, however.
“Diesel prices typically move inverse to that of gasoline, especially this time of year. Diesel prices tend to be higher in winter and lower in summer, whereas gasoline is just the opposite, lower in winter and higher in summer.”
“Now cold weather like we're having can make a profound impact on heating oil, heating oil and diesel are essentially the same product, and so it would not be a surprise to seek diesel prices inching up, especially if there are bouts of very cold weather, simply because the heating oil consumption goes up as the temperatures go down.”