It's a slightly modified take on the traditional weather folklore saying, but it appears February will go out like a lion and March will come in like a lamb. Very strong wind gusts are in the forecast for the early morning hours through early afternoon on Friday. Environment Canada has indicated northwesterly gusts up to 80km/h are possible.
"What we’re seeing tonight, overnight and into Friday is courtesy of our old friend the Alberta clipper," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "We have a fairly strong one coming out of northern Alberta Thursday as it begins a very quick trek across the Prairies, sliding into Southern Manitoba tonight."
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This low will have two sides to it and two stories to tell, according to Sumner.
"Those regions on its northern edge in the Interlake, Parkland and eastern Manitoba areas north of the Trans Canada will see the snowfall, possibly 10 to 15cms by the time Friday afternoon arrives," he said noting Snowfall Warnings are currently in place for those areas. "On the south side of this system, essentially all of Southern Manitoba, we’re only getting the gusty winds and possibly a few flurries or light snow. As for why it will be so windy, one of the factors at play is the pressure gradient, or the difference in pressure between the low pressure system and the airmass around it, it is quite a bit. When that happens, very strong winds are typically present."
Even though Southern Manitoba is not expecting much snow, what flakes we do see combined with the strong winds will mean blowing snow could develop.
"The blowing snow risk is tied to the flurries we could get, as well as any snowpack these strong winds may be able to pick up," noted Sumner. "With how much melting there’s been this week, and the fact the remaining snowpack has a fairly significant crusted layer overtop, it’s questionable how much blowing snow may come from that snowpack. I’m keeping more of an eye on the combination of the flurries and wind happening around the same time."
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It's expected the wind will start to back off Friday afternoon, but still gusting to 50 km/h, before continuing to diminish Friday night.
"Behind this low will be a cold front, and an area of surface high pressure descending from the North West Territories, pushing in cooler air than we’ve had for part of the weekend, but do not expect a return to the bitter cold we had," Sumner stressed. "Temperatures will fall throughout the late morning and afternoon Friday as that colder airmass arrives. Temperatures will continue to sink overnight with lows dipping toward the -20s for the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba. The southwestern corner of the province is expected to stay warmer, because the coldest air is not expected to spill into that region."
That high pressure will make things sunny on Saturday, with slightly below seasonal highs of -5 to -7.
"We start to warm back up on Sunday, as that area of high pressure continues to slide southward, and winds shift southerly, bringing warmer air back to our region to start next week," he said pointing to highs Sunday of +2 to +4.
Average daytime highs for this time of year are -5, with overnight lows around -14.